Hotcoin Research | October 27–31, 2025

Crypto Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.71 trillion, with BTC accounting for 59.3% at $2.2 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $307.1 billion, a decrease of 0.59% in the last 7 days. Notably, the number of stablecoins saw negative growth this week, with USDT accounting for 59.69%.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most declined, with a small number rising. Specifically: ZEC rose 58.98% in 7 days, VIRTUAL rose 57.8% in 7 days, DASH rose 47.23% in 7 days, ZEN rose 79.8% in 7 days, and HNT rose 29.57% in 7 days.

This week, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of $800 million; US Ethereum spot ETFs saw net inflows of $16.4 million.

Market Forecast (November 3rd — November 7th):

Currently, the RSI is 46.56 (neutral range), the Fear & Greed Index is 32 (lower than last week, in the fear range), and the Altcoins Index is 43 (lower than last week).

BTC Core Range: $107,000-$112,000

ETH Core Range: $3,600-$4,100

SOL Core Range: $175-$205

This week, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but Powell’s hawkish stance on a December rate cut had a certain impact on the market. Some long-term holders took profits, leading to a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” situation. The market should pay close attention to new comments affecting the interest rate decision and the inflow and outflow of spot ETFs, as these are key market variables. In short, the market is at a critical technical juncture, and next week will be a period of consolidation and directional choice.

For long-term investors, the core strategy is to ignore short-term noise and focus on long-term value and trends. For short-term traders, next week will be a crucial period of technical maneuvering, requiring more flexible and astute responses. When the direction is unclear, it is essential to maintain low leverage or even zero leverage to avoid forced liquidation due to sharp fluctuations.

Understanding the Present

Review of the Week’s Major Events

1. October 27th: Local time October 26th, the US and Chinese trade teams concluded two days of consultations in Kuala Lumpur, the capital of Malaysia. Reuters reported that this was the fifth face-to-face consultation between the US and Chinese trade teams since May of this year. Following the talks, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessenter stated in an interview with U.S. media that after two days of talks in Kuala Lumpur, the two sides reached a “very substantial framework agreement,” and the U.S. would “no longer consider” imposing a 100% tariff on China.

2. On October 27th, Monday, spot gold opened sharply lower by $40 before rebounding, currently trading at $4102 per ounce.

3. On October 26th, a joint statement from the U.S. and Thailand indicated that the U.S. would maintain its 19% tariff on Thailand. 4. Thailand will remove tariff barriers on approximately 99% of goods, covering all US industrial products as well as food and agricultural products;

5. On October 28th, GMGN officially stated on social media, “Regarding recent false rumors about GMGN being hacked and resulting in user fund losses, we have immediately launched a comprehensive security audit. We have now confirmed that the platform has no security issues and user funds are safe”;

6. On October 28th, according to official news, Coinbase Asset Management (CBAM), a wholly-owned investment management arm of Coinbase Global, announced a strategic partnership with asset management giant Apollo (NYSE: APO) to jointly launch a stablecoin-based credit strategy solution. This move will build a bridge connecting stablecoins, private lending, and asset tokenization, aiming to tap into high-quality lending opportunities within the rapidly expanding stablecoin ecosystem.

6. On October 29th, TheBlock reported that Visa will accept payments in four stablecoins across four separate blockchains. These stablecoins can be exchanged for two target fiat currencies and then converted back into more than 25 traditional fiat currencies.

7. On October 30th, Reuters, citing sources familiar with the matter, reported that OpenAI is preparing for an IPO with a potential valuation of up to $1 trillion. Sources revealed that the company is considering filing with regulators as early as the second half of 2026, with a minimum fundraising target of $60 billion. The specific valuation and timing will depend on business growth and market conditions. OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar told some sources that the company aims to go public in 2027.

8. On October 30th, Axios reported that sources revealed Consensys, the parent company of MetaMask, has hired JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs to lead its initial public offering (IPO). The IPO is reportedly possible as early as 2026, but details regarding its size and valuation were not disclosed.

9. On October 31st, Ethereum Foundation researchers officially set a date for its mainnet hard fork (codenamed “Fusaka”). During Thursday’s “All Core Developers” conference call, Ethereum Foundation researchers stated that Fusaka will launch on December 3rd.

10. On October 31st, CNBC reported that Coinbase’s Q3 earnings exceeded expectations, with net profit rising to $432.6 million ($1.50 per share) from $75.5 million ($0.28 per share) in the same period last year. Earnings per share exceeded the consensus analyst estimate of $1.10 compiled by the London Stock Exchange Group.

11. On October 31st, Bloomberg reported that Strategy Technologies released its Q3 earnings after the US stock market closed, reporting a net profit of $2.8 billion for the quarter, driven by unrealized gains from the appreciation of its approximately $69 billion in cryptocurrency holdings.

Macroeconomic Overview

1. On October 29, the Bank of Canada lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, in line with market expectations, marking its second consecutive rate cut;

2. On October 30, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC statement announced that it would end its balance sheet reduction on December 1. (Currently, the Fed is reducing its holdings of US Treasury bonds by $5 billion and MBS by $35 billion per month;

3. On October 30, the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second consecutive rate cut at its meeting, in line with market expectations;

4. On October 31, according to the Fed’s interest rate monitor, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December was 60.8%.

ETFs

According to statistics, during the period from October 27 to October 31, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $800 million; as of October 31, GBTC (Grayscale) saw a total outflow of $24.638 billion, currently holding $18.833 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $88.421 billion. The total market capitalization of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $149 billion.

US Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $16.4 million.

Future Foresight

Event Announcement

1. The event will be held at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC) from December 8th to 9th.

2. Solana Breakpoint 2025 will be held in Abu Dhabi from December 11th to 13th.

Project Progress

1. The first project to be listed on the YGG Play Launchpad platform is LOL, the in-game loyalty and reward token for the game LOL Land. It will officially launch on November 1st and begin trading on the DEX.

2. The deadline for claiming the Monad airdrop is November 3rd.

Important Events

1. Nasdaq has applied to the US SEC to add XRP, SOL, ADA, and XLM to its cryptocurrency index. A final decision is expected before November 2nd.

2. The trial date for the Bitcoin privacy wallet Samourai Wallet has been set for November 3rd, 2025.

Token Unlocking

1. 4396 Sui (SUI) tokens will be unlocked on November 1st. 1. 10,000 tokens, worth approximately $103 million, representing 1.21% of the circulating supply;

2. EigenCloud (EIGEN) will unlock 36.82 million tokens on November 1st, worth approximately $33.99 million, representing 12.10% of the circulating supply;

3. Omni Network (OMNI) will unlock 7.99 million tokens on November 2nd, worth approximately $17.34 million, representing 30.30% of the circulating supply;

4. Memecoin (MEME) will unlock 3.45 billion tokens on November 3rd, worth approximately $5.23 million, representing 5.98% of the circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core research and investment arm of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into actionable tools. Through our “Weekly Insights” and “In-depth Research Reports,” we dissect market dynamics for you. Leveraging our exclusive “Hotcoin Selects” feature — which employs a dual-screening process by both AI and human experts — we help you pinpoint high-potential assets and minimize trial-and-error costs. Every week, our researchers also connect with you directly via livestreams to decipher hot topics and forecast market trends. We believe that our supportive engagement and expert guidance can empower more investors to navigate market cycles and seize the value opportunities in Web3.

Risk Disclaimer

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and all investments carry inherent risks. We strongly advise investors to thoroughly assess these risks and adhere to a strict risk management framework to safeguard their funds.

Website：https://lite.hotcoingex.cc/r/Hotcoinresearch

X：x.com/HotcoinAcademy

Mail：labs@hotcoin.com