Hotcoin Research | October 13–17, 2025

Crypto Market Performance

Market Overview

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization currently stands at $3.63 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.9% ($2.13 trillion). The stablecoin market cap reached $307.1 billion, up 0.95% week-over-week. USDT maintains dominance with 59.1% of the total stablecoin supply.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most tokens recorded weekly declines, though several outperformed, including:

• TAO (+44.64%)
• MORPHO (+35.26%)
• IP (+21.8%)
• TRAC (+54.64%)
• RSR (+47.38%)

Meanwhile, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw $1.225 billion in net outflows, and Ethereum spot ETFs recorded $311.8 million in outflows.

Market Indicators

• RSI: 42.95 (Neutral)
• Fear & Greed Index: 22 (Fear zone, down from last week)
• Altcoin Season Index: 37

Core Trading Ranges (Oct 20–24):

• BTC: $104,000 — $112,000
• ETH: $3,600 — $4,100
• SOL: $175 — $210

The market rebounded early in the week following Powell’s statement that “balance sheet reduction will soon cease and interest rate cuts will continue in the future,” but declined again in the latter half.

Has the Bull Market’s Foundation Been Shaken?

Not entirely. The core drivers — global monetary shifts and growing institutional adoption — remain intact. However, macro-political risk has emerged as a major variable that investors can no longer overlook. This bull market’s trajectory may become more volatile and non-linear, but its structural base is still standing.

Strategies Ahead

Short-Term Traders

• Focus on low leverage and high flexibility
• Prioritize BTC and ETH in a range-bound strategy
• React quickly to macro-news, including Trump’s tweets, White House statements, and official comments from China and the U.S.
  Market responses to these developments can be rapid and sharp.

Medium- to Long-Term Investors

• Regular Investors: Treat this correction as a buying opportunity. Gradually build positions near BTC $102,000 and ETH $3,700, avoiding heavy one-time entries.
• Holders: If your position is light, hold patiently.
  If your position is heavy or at high cost, consider partial reductions on rebounds near resistance to manage risk.

Understanding the Present

Review of Major Events of the Week

1. Binance Compensates $283M After Depegging Incident
   Binance reimbursed users $283 million following the USDE depegging issue on October 13. The so-called “zero price” was only a display glitch, and no trading impact occurred.
2. Kalshi Partners with Pyth Network
   Prediction market platform Kalshi announced a partnership with Pyth Network to publish its market data to over 100 blockchains, expanding real-world data access across DeFi ecosystems.
3. Powell Signals Further Rate Cuts
   On October 15, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted further labor market weakness, suggesting readiness to support another interest rate cut later this month.
4. Eric Trump Pushes Real Estate Tokenization
   Eric Trump confirmed plans to launch a real estate tokenization platform through World Liberty Financial, underscoring crypto’s growing role in property markets.
5. $710M in Liquidations Across Markets
   In the past 24 hours (October 17), total liquidations reached $710 million across the market, affecting 217,395 traders worldwide.
6. Longs: $508M
7. Shorts: $202M
8. Largest single liquidation: $20.43M (BTC-USD, Hyperliquid)
9. Coinbase Launches Stablecoin Payment Platform
   Coinbase Business officially launched on October 16, enabling USDC-based B2B payments. The platform removes chargebacks, integrates APIs, and simplifies supplier payments for enterprise clients.
10. U.S. DOJ Executes Record $15B Bitcoin Seizure
    The U.S. Department of Justice charged Chen Zhi, founder of Cambodia’s Prince Group. It confiscated 127,271 BTC (≈$15B) under his control — the largest on-chain asset seizure in history, showcasing government capability in crypto enforcement.
11. U.S. Government Shutdown Deepens
    As of October 16, the U.S. government shutdown continues, delaying key economic data releases and heightening macroeconomic uncertainty, dampening investor sentiment in crypto and traditional markets alike.
12. Gold Surges as Safe-Haven Demand Spikes
    Escalating trade tensions, credit risk concerns, and the U.S. shutdown triggered a rush to safe-haven assets. Spot gold prices surpassed $4,380/oz, marking new all-time highs on consecutive days.

Macroeconomy

1. Powell Signals End to Balance Sheet Reduction
   On October 15, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that the Fed may halt its balance sheet reduction in the coming months, noting that reserves are approaching levels deemed “adequate.”
2. Markets Price In October Rate Cut
   As of October 18, the Fed Rate Monitor shows a 94.8% probability of a 25 bps rate cut in October, reflecting strong market expectations for continued monetary easing.

US Spot ETF Flows

According to statistics, between October 13 and 17, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $1.225 billion.
As of October 17:

• GBTC (Grayscale): Total outflow of $24.453 billion, with $18.475 billion in current holdings
• IBIT (BlackRock): Currently holds $85.778 billion
• Total BTC spot ETF market capitalization: $144.748 billion

Meanwhile, US Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $311.8 million during the same period.

Looking Ahead

Events

1. Shanghai Blockchain International Week 2025
   Opens in October, featuring the 11th Blockchain Global Summit hosted by Wanxiang Blockchain Lab on October 23 as the core event.
2. Blockchain Life 2025 (Dubai, UAE)
   Scheduled for October 28–29, 2025, bringing together global leaders in blockchain, crypto, and mining.
3. Bitcoin MENA (Abu Dhabi)
   To be held at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center (ADNEC) from December 8–9, 2025.
4. Solana Breakpoint 2025 (Abu Dhabi)
   Set for December 11–13, 2025, highlighting Solana’s ecosystem growth and regional expansion.

Project Updates

1. Ethereal will launch its mainnet Alpha on October 20.
2. HyperSwap posted “October 20” on X, possibly hinting at a Token Generation Event (TGE) on the same date.
3. Bluwhale AI (BLUAI) will hold its TGE on October 21.
4. Meteora (MET) will conduct its TGE on October 23.

Important Events

1. The U.S. Treasury Department is seeking public comments on the implementation of the GENIUS Act, with submissions due by October 20.
2. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September CPI report at 8:30 PM (Beijing Time) on October 24.

Token Unlocks

1. LayerZero (ZERO) — October 20
   Unlocking 25.32 million tokens, valued at ≈$43.7 million, representing 7.86% of the circulating supply.
2. KAITO (KAITO) — October 20
   Unlocking 8.35 million tokens, valued at ≈$8.71 million, representing 3.06% of the circulating supply.
3. Scroll (SCR) — October 22
   Unlocking 82.5 million tokens, valued at ≈$14.08 million, representing 43.42% of the circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, the core research and investment arm of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to turning professional crypto analysis into actionable strategies. Our three-pillar framework — trend analysis, value discovery, and real-time tracking — combines deep research, multi-angle project evaluation, and continuous market monitoring.

Through our Weekly Insights and In-depth Research Reports, we break down market dynamics and spotlight emerging opportunities. With Hotcoin Selects — our exclusive dual-screening process powered by both AI and human expertise — we help identify high-potential assets while minimizing trial-and-error costs.

We also engage with the community through weekly livestreams, decoding market hot topics, and forecasting key trends. Our goal is to empower investors of all levels to navigate cycles with confidence and capture long-term value in Web3.

Risk Disclaimer

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and all investments carry inherent risks. We strongly encourage investors to stay informed, assess risks thoroughly, and follow strict risk management practices to protect their assets.

Connect with Us

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