With $19.1 Billion in Margin Calls, Have Trump’s Tariffs Opened Pandora’s Box? Has Crypto Winter Arrived?

Hotcoin Research | October 6–10, 2025

Crypto Market Performance

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization currently stands at $3.73 trillion, with Bitcoin (BTC) accounting for 59.9% or $2.23 trillion. The stablecoin market capitalization is $304.6 billion, up 0.69% over the past seven days, continuing its steady upward trend. USDT represents 58.88% of this total.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most experienced declines, with only a few recording gains. Notable movements include:

• ZEC: +67.77% (7D)
• IP: −55.79% (7D)
• MYX: −55.08% (7D)
• DEXE: −50.97% (7D)
• KAVA: −49.35% (7D)

This week, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $2.70 billion in net inflows, while U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs saw $484.3 million in net inflows.

Market Forecast (October 13–17)

• RSI: 29.37 (oversold zone)
• Fear and Greed Index: 28 (fear zone)
• Altcoin Season Index: 45

Core Ranges:

• BTC: $110,000 — $115,000
• ETH: $3,700 — $4,100
• SOL: $170 — $190

Major Market Event: October 11 Plunge

On October 11, the market experienced a historic plunge.
According to Coinglass, in the past 24 hours, $19.1 billion in positions were liquidated, affecting over 1.62 million traders. This marks the largest single-day liquidation event — both in volume and in number of individuals — in the decade-long history of crypto futures trading.

The drop was primarily triggered by the Trump administration’s proposed tariffs on China, compounded by liquidity withdrawal and high leverage. While bulls and bears remain sharply divided, this is not an ideal time to sell at a low. Waiting for the situation to stabilize may be prudent, especially with the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut on October 30 reaching 98%.

A crypto winter has not arrived, but caution is warranted.

Strategic Outlook

Short-Term Traders:
Watch whether BTC finds support around $111,050 and rebounds.

• A break above $113,290 could signal a continued short-term rebound.
• A fall below $111,050 may accelerate declines toward $109,560 or lower.
• Volatility is expected to remain extreme, making quick, tactical trades more suitable.

Medium- to Long-Term Investors:

For investors with a long-term view, this market crash could be an opportunity to accumulate high-quality assets at more attractive prices. Consider a phased investment strategy, focusing on assets with strong fundamentals such as BTC and ETH.

Understanding the Present

Review of Major Events of the Week

• October 6 — The U.S. federal government shutdown extended into a new week, delaying the release of key economic data and stalling regulatory approvals by agencies such as the SEC, further heightening market uncertainty.
• October 8 — The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its September FOMC meeting. Markets scrutinized the details for signals on inflation control and the future path of interest rate cuts, seeking to gauge the direction of monetary policy.
• October 8 — The SEC postponed its decision on a Bitcoin and Ethereum hybrid ETF, delaying approval of the first spot ETF combining BTC and ETH. The move dampened short-term market sentiment.
• October 9 — Concerns over quantum computing emerged after the Nobel Prize in Physics was awarded to advancements in the field. Several analysts warned that quantum technology could pose a long-term threat to blockchain security, sparking market anxiety.
• October 10 — The SEC delayed its decision on Solana and Litecoin ETFs. The highly anticipated altcoin spot ETFs failed to gain approval, putting downward pressure on the prices of Solana and related assets.
• October 10 — Trump announced 100% tariffs on China, a major geopolitical shock that became a turning point for markets. Global risk assets experienced panic sell-offs. Bitcoin flash crashed from an intraday high of around $122,000, while major cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum and Solana followed with declines exceeding 20–30% at one point. A record wave of leveraged liquidations swept the market, with total liquidated positions reaching $19.1 billion in 24 hours across the network, affecting roughly 1.6 million traders.
• October 11 — The USDe stablecoin experienced a severe depegging. A cascade of liquidations and pressure on its mechanism drove the price down to $0.65, triggering panic across the DeFi ecosystem.

Macroeconomics

• October 10 — CNBC reported that, after a rigorous series of interviews, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bensont narrowed the list of candidates for Federal Reserve Chair from 11 to 5. The final nominee may be selected in January, though appointment to the position is not guaranteed.
• October 10 — The Nasdaq fell 1% after Trump threatened to “significantly increase” tariffs on China.
• October 11 — The Federal Reserve’s Rate Monitor placed the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October at 98.1%.

ETFs

According to statistics, between October 6 and October 10, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $2.70 billion in net inflows. As of October 10, GBTC (Grayscale) had seen a total outflow of $24.15 billion, with current holdings of $20.54 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) held $93.57 billion. The total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs reached $158.94 billion.

Net inflows into U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs totaled $484.3 million over the same period.

Looking Ahead

Events

1. The Aptos Experience will be held in New York on October 15–16.
2. Blockchain Life 2025 will take place in Dubai, UAE on October 28–29, 2025.
3. Bitcoin MENA will be held at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center (ADNEC) on December 8–9.
4. Solana Breakpoint 2025 will be held in Abu Dhabi on December 11–13.

Project Updates

1. Fleek (FLK) will hold its TGE on October 14.
2. Intuition (TRUST) will hold its TGE on October 15.
3. Novastro (XNL) will hold its TGE on October 15.

Important Events

1. At 11:30 PM on October 14, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech at an event hosted by the National Association for Business Economics.
2. At 8:30 PM on October 16, the U.S. will release the September retail sales monthly rate.

Token Unlocks

• Aethir (ATH) will unlock 1.26 billion tokens on October 12, valued at approximately $57.86 million and representing 16.08% of the circulating supply.
• Starknet (STRK) will unlock 127 million tokens on October 15, valued at approximately $16.19 million and representing 5.64% of the circulating supply.
• Sei (SEI) will unlock 55.56 million tokens on October 15, valued at approximately $12.60 million and representing 1.15% of the circulating supply.
• Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock 92.65 million tokens on October 16, valued at approximately $29.98 million and representing 1.99% of the circulating supply.
• ZKsync (ZK) will unlock 172 million tokens on October 17, valued at approximately $7.42 million and representing 3.49% of the circulating supply.
• Fasttoken (FTN) will unlock 20 million tokens on October 18, valued at approximately $39.60 million and representing 2.04% of the circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, the core research and investment arm of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to turning professional crypto analysis into actionable strategies. Our three-pillar framework — trend analysis, value discovery, and real-time tracking — combines deep research, multi-angle project evaluation, and continuous market monitoring.

Through our Weekly Insights and In-depth Research Reports, we break down market dynamics and spotlight emerging opportunities. With Hotcoin Elite Picks — our exclusive dual-screening process powered by both AI and human expertise — we help identify high-potential assets while minimizing trial-and-error costs.

We also engage with the community through weekly livestreams, decoding market hot topics and forecasting key trends. Our goal is to empower investors of all levels to navigate cycles with confidence and capture long-term value in Web3.

Risk Disclaimer

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and all investments carry inherent risks. We strongly encourage investors to stay informed, assess risks thoroughly, and follow strict risk management practices to protect their assets.

Website: https://lite.hotcoingex.cc/r/Hotcoinresearch

X: x.com/HotcoinAcademy

Email: labs@hotcoin.com