Hotcoin Research | September 22–26, 2025

Crypto Market Performance

Market Overview
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization currently stands at $3.78 trillion, with Bitcoin (BTC) accounting for 57.8% of the total, or approximately $2.18 trillion. Stablecoins have a combined market capitalization of $297.2 billion, down 1.58% over the past seven days — marking their first weekly decline in nearly three months. USDT continues to dominate with 58.65% market share.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most saw declines, though a handful posted strong gains. Notable weekly increases included:

• ASTER: +117.01%
• XPL: +64.59%
• SNX: +73.35%
• MERL: +58.95%
• AVNT: +49.11%

On the institutional side, US-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $897 million in net outflows this week, while Ethereum spot ETFs posted $795 million in net outflows.

Market Indicators

• RSI: 44.59 (neutral)
• Fear & Greed Index: 32 (fear) — the first dip into the fear zone since February.
• Altcoin Season Index: 71 (suggesting altcoins remain relatively strong).

Core Ranges

• BTC: $105,000–115,000
• ETH: $3,700–4,100
• SOL: $191–210

Outlook & Strategies

Short-Term (1–3 Days):
The market is at a critical technical level, with potential for heightened volatility. A cautious, wait-and-see stance is advised.

Medium-Term (Several Weeks):
Macroeconomic factors — particularly the Federal Reserve’s policy direction and US PCE inflation data — remain central. If BTC can hold above $115,500, it is likely to challenge new highs in the medium term.

Long-Term (Several Months+):
Institutional demand, such as sustained inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, along with global liquidity, will continue to support the market. A phased accumulation strategy on dips remains a favorable approach.

Understanding the Present

Significant Events of the Week | September 23–26, 2025

1. DTCC Lists 21Shares Dogecoin ETF (September 23)

According to market reports, the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) has listed the 21Shares Dogecoin ETF (ticker: TDOG). While this listing does not indicate regulatory approval or guarantee any outcome in the approval process, it is a standard preparatory step for launching new ETFs.

2. UXLINK Security Incident (September 23)

UXLINK disclosed a security vulnerability in its multi-sig wallet, leading to the illegal transfer of funds to both CEXs and DEXs. The team is working with security experts, exchanges, and law enforcement to freeze suspicious deposits and pursue asset recovery. Losses are estimated to exceed $11 million, with ongoing transparent updates promised.

3. Aster Revenue Hits Record High (September 24)

Data from DeFiLlama shows that Aster generated $7.04M in revenue in the past 24 hours, marking an all-time high. This surpassed Hyperliquid ($2.79M) and placed Aster second only to Tether ($21.99M) and Circle ($7.72M).

4. SEC & CFTC Joint Roundtable (September 24)

The US SEC and CFTC announced they will hold a joint roundtable on September 29 to discuss the coordination of crypto regulatory policies.

5. Griffin AI Price Crash (September 25)

Griffin AI (GAIN), newly launched on Binance Alpha, experienced a sharp decline on September 25. Within an hour, its price collapsed by over 95%, falling to $0.005 before recovering slightly to $0.00758. Its current BSC market cap stands at $2.58M.

6. Fed’s Daly Signals More Rate Cuts (September 25)

Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Fed, voiced full support for last week’s rate cut and suggested further cuts may be necessary to support economic stability.

7. US Tariffs Announced by President Trump (September 26)

President Trump confirmed that, effective October 1, 2025, the US will impose:

• Tariffs on all heavy trucks produced outside the US
• 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities, and related products
• 30% tariff on upholstered furniture
• 100% tariff on all branded/patented pharmaceutical products (unless manufacturing facilities are built in the US)

Macroeconomy

1. Initial Jobless Claims (September 25)

US initial jobless claims fell to 218,000 for the week ending September 20 — the lowest level since July 19, 2025. The figure came in below expectations of 235,000, while the prior week’s reading was revised up slightly from 231,000 to 232,000.

2. Core PCE Price Index (September 26)

The US core PCE price index for August rose 2.9% year-on-year, exactly in line with expectations. On a monthly basis, core PCE increased 0.2%, also matching forecasts, with the previous reading revised down from 0.3% to 0.2%.

3. Fed Rate Cut Probability (September 27)

According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are now pricing a 90.8% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in October, signaling strong expectations for further monetary easing.

ETFs

ETF Flows | September 22–26, 2025

Bitcoin ETFs

Between September 22 and 26, US-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net outflows of $897 million.

• GBTC (Grayscale): Total outflows reached $24.118 billion, with current holdings of $ 19.272 billion.
• IBIT (BlackRock): Current holdings stand at $83.706B.

As of September 26, the total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs was $ 144.473 billion.

Ethereum ETFs

Over the same period, US-listed Ethereum spot ETFs saw net outflows of $795 million.

Forecasting the Future

Event Announcement

1. TOKEN2049 Singapore 2025 — Singapore, October 1–2, 2025
2. SuiFest — Singapore, October 2, 2025
3. Blockchain Life 2025 — Dubai, UAE, October 28–29, 2025

Project Updates | September 30–October 1, 2025

1. FTX Distributions (September 30)

FTX will make its next round of customer and creditor distributions on September 30, reducing the disputed claims reserve by $1.9B (from $6.5B to $4.3B). The record date was set for August 15. Eligible recipients include customers with permitted claims, general unsecured claim holders, and convenience claim holders who missed previous distributions. Payments will be processed via BitGo, Kraken, and Payoneer.

2. Kaia Token Swap Deadline (September 30)

L1 blockchain Kaia (formerly Klaytn) announced that its FNSA-to-KAIA token swap will end on September 30, coinciding with the complete shutdown of the legacy Finschia chain.

3. Kinto Shutdown (September 30)

Kinto, a modular trading platform in the Arbitrum ecosystem, will shut down operations on September 30. Wallet access and asset withdrawals will remain available until then. The ERA airdrop is scheduled for October 15.

4. Yei Finance TGE Registration (September 30)

Registration for the Token Generation Event (TGE) of Sei ecosystem project Yei Finance remains open until September 30.

5. Starknet BTC Staking Launch (September 30)

Starknet will launch BTC staking on its mainnet on September 30. Additionally, the unstaking period will be shortened from 21 days to 7 days, improving flexibility for participants.

6. SBI Holdings Acquires CoinPost (October 1)

SBI Holdings has acquired a majority stake in Web3 media company CoinPost. The deal is expected to close on October 1, 2025.

Key Events | September 29–October 3, 2025

1. SEC & CFTC Joint Roundtable (September 29)

The U.S. SEC and CFTC will hold a joint roundtable on September 29 to discuss crypto market oversight. Potential coordination areas include 24/7 markets, prediction markets, perpetual contracts, portfolio margin, innovation exemptions, and DeFi regulation.

2. UK Trial of Qian Zhimin (September 29)

The UK will begin the trial of Qian Zhimin (also known as Zhang Yadi), the mastermind behind the 60,000 BTC money laundering case and the ¥43 billion illegal fundraising scandal at Tianjin Lantian Green. Qian was arrested in April 2024 and faces two counts of money laundering.

3. Strategy Dividend Payments (September 30)

Strategy’s four preferred stocks will distribute cash dividends on September 30.

4. US Crypto Market Structure Bill (September 30)

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott confirmed that the crypto market structure bill will be finalized by September 30.

5. RBA Rate Decision (September 30)

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its interest rate decision on September 30.

6. US ADP Employment Data (October 1, 8:15 PM)

The US will release September ADP employment figures (in 10,000s) at 8:15 PM.

7. US Initial Jobless Claims (October 2, 8:30 PM)

The US will release initial jobless claims for the week ending September 27 at 8:30 PM.

8. US Labor Market Report (October 3, 8:30 PM)

The US will publish the September unemployment rate and seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls at 8:30 PM.

Upcoming Token Unlocks | September 2–5, 2025

1. Ethena (ENA)

• Unlock: 40.75M tokens
• Time: September 2, 3:00 PM
• Value: ~$25.92M
• Share of Supply: 0.64%

2. IOTA (IOTA)

• Unlock: 15.88M tokens
• Time: September 3, 8:00 AM
• Value: ~$2.86M
• Share of Supply: 0.42%

3. Immutable (IMX)

• Unlock: 24.84M tokens
• Time: September 5, 8:00 AM
• Value: ~$12.42M
• Share of Supply: 1.277%

4. Mocaverse (MOCA)

• Unlock: 2.46M tokens
• Time: September 5, 8:00 AM
• Value: ~$165K
• Share of Supply: 0.06%

About Us

Hotcoin Research, the core research and investment arm of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to turning professional crypto analysis into actionable strategies. Our three-pillar framework — trend analysis, value discovery, and real-time tracking — combines deep research, multi-angle project evaluation, and continuous market monitoring.

Through our Weekly Insights and In-depth Research Reports, we break down market dynamics and spotlight emerging opportunities. With Hotcoin Selects — our exclusive dual-screening process powered by both AI and human expertise — we help identify high-potential assets while minimizing trial-and-error costs.

We also engage with the community through weekly livestreams, decoding market hot topics, and forecasting key trends. Our goal is to empower investors of all levels to navigate cycles with confidence and capture long-term value in Web3.

Risk Disclaimer

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and all investments carry inherent risks. We strongly encourage investors to stay informed, thoroughly assess risks, and adhere to strict risk management practices to protect their assets.

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