Hotcoin Research | August 25–29, 2025

Crypto Market Performance

Currently, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $3.78 trillion, with BTC accounting for 57.2% of the total, or $2.16 trillion. Stablecoins have a market capitalization of $283.4 billion, up 2.62% over the past seven days, with USDT accounting for 59.13%.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, a few saw gains, while the majority saw declines. These include: CRO (up 98.1% over the past seven days), M (up 60.29% over the past seven days), PYTH (up 59.48% over the past seven days), B (up 23.75% over the past seven days), and QTUM (up 14.1% over the past seven days).

This week, net inflows into US Bitcoin spot ETFs were $440 million; net inflows into US Ethereum spot ETFs were $1.082 billion.

Market Forecast (September 1st-5th):

The RSI is currently at 48.59, indicating a neutral to weak trend. The Fear and Greed Index is at 40 (lower than last week). The crypto market is expected to continue its volatile and weak trend, with some potential for a correction.

BTC Core Range: $108,650–113,500. Be wary of the risk of a test of $100,000.

ETH Core Range: $4,400–4,800. The $4,400 support level is crucial.

Short-term traders should remain flexible, focus on technical analysis, adhere to stop-loss orders, and consider taking advantage of rebounds to test short positions. Long-term investors should remain patient and consider market pullbacks as opportunities to gradually allocate to high-quality assets. Accumulate shares near key support levels using a fixed investment strategy.

Understanding the Present

Review of Major Events of the Week

1. On August 24, OKX CEO Star stated on social media, “X Layer will be a long-term development initiative. We will launch a $100 million X Layer Ecosystem Fund to support global builders in creating the next wave of on-chain applications. We will prioritize supporting teams with long-term vision and technical strength, rather than short-term profit-seeking token projects.”

2. On August 25, according to data released by Infra, Raydium has spent a total of $196.3 million to repurchase 71 million RAY tokens, accounting for 26.4% of the circulating supply.

3. On August 25, according to prnewswire, US-listed Sharps Technology, Inc. (STSS) announced that it is raising $400 million in funding. The funds will support the company’s digital asset treasury strategy, with SOL, the native asset of the Solana blockchain, as its core holding.

4. On August 26, according to Axios, the world’s largest prediction market, Polymarket, received a grant from Donald Trump Jr., the eldest son of President Trump. Venture capital fund investment. Trump’s eldest son, who joined 1789 Capital last year, invested tens of millions of dollars in Polymarket. Trump’s eldest son will also join Polymarket’s advisory board.

5. On August 29, Frax Finance founder Sam Kazemian announced that he had joined Stable, a new blockchain project built around Tether’s USDT, as Chief Technology Officer. He will also continue to serve as CEO of Frax.

6. On August 29, crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett wrote, “The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is about to issue guidance clarifying its Foreign Platform for Trading (FBOT) registration rules, providing a legal path for non-U.S. trading platforms to allow U.S. users to trade on their platforms.”

Macroeconomics

1. On August 29, according to CME’s “Fed Watch” data, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in September was 16.9%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was 83.1%.

2. On August 29, the U.S. core PCE price index for July was 2.9% annualized, the highest since February 2025. Expected: 2.90%, previous value: 2.80%;

3. On August 28, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending August 23 was 229,000, compared to an expected 230,000 and a revised previous value of 235,000 to 234,000.

ETFs

According to statistics, between August 25 and 29, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $440 million. As of August 29, GBTC (Grayscale) had seen a total outflow of $23.891 billion, currently holding $19.341 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently held $80.725 billion. The total market capitalization of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $141.314 billion.

US Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.082 billion.

Foreseeing the Future

Events

1. Taipei Blockchain Week 2025 will be held in Taipei from September 4th to 6th;

2. EDCON 2025 will be held in Osaka, Japan from September 16th to 19th, bringing together members of the global Ethereum community to discuss protocol updates, ecosystem development, and the future of Web3;

3. Korea Blockchain Week 2025 will be held in South Korea from September 22nd to 28th.

Project Updates

1. Tether announced that it will terminate support for USDT on the Omni, Bitcoin Cash SLP, Kusama, EOS, and Algorand networks starting September 1st, 2025. Officials stated that this move aims to optimize the overall infrastructure layout, align with actual community usage trends, and focus resources on blockchains with greater application value and active development.

2. The deadline for claiming COOK rewards for the mETH Protocol’s Season 2 Methamorphosis event is September 2, 2025.

3. Ondo Finance will launch tokenized stocks on September 3rd, following its previous announcement that it would launch Ondo Global Markets, an on-chain US stock platform, this summer.

Important Events

1. Trump’s second son, Eric Trump, plans to attend the shareholders’ meeting of Metaplanet, a Japanese listed company, on September 1st. Metaplanet previously appointed Eric Trump to its strategic advisory board.

2. The US will release the August ADP employment figures (in 10,000 people) at 8:15 PM on September 4th.

3. The US will release the initial jobless claims figures (in 10,000 people) for the week ending August 30th at 8:30 PM on September 4th.

4. The US will release the seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll figures (in 10,000 people) for August at 8:30 PM on September 5th.

5. The US will release the August unemployment rate at 8:30 PM on September 5th.

Token Unlocks

1. Sui (SUI) will unlock 44 million tokens on September 1st, valued at approximately $161 million and representing 1.25% of the circulating supply.

2. Ethena (ENA) will unlock 40.63 million tokens on September 2nd, valued at approximately $27.51 million and representing 0.64% of the circulating supply.

3. Immutable (IMX) will unlock 24.52 million tokens on September 5th, valued at approximately $12.81 million and representing 1.27% of the circulating supply.

4. Movement (MOVE) will unlock 50 million tokens on September 9th, valued at approximately $6.18 million and representing 1.89% of the circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core research and investment arm of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into actionable tools. Through our “Weekly Insights” and “In-depth Research Reports,” we dissect market dynamics for you. Leveraging our exclusive “Hotcoin Selects” feature — which employs a dual-screening process by both AI and human experts — we help you pinpoint high-potential assets and minimize trial-and-error costs. Every week, our researchers also connect with you directly via livestreams to decipher hot topics and forecast market trends. We believe that our supportive engagement and expert guidance can empower more investors to navigate market cycles and seize the value opportunities in Web3.

Risk Disclaimer

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and all investments carry inherent risks. We strongly advise investors to thoroughly assess these risks and adhere to a strict risk management framework to safeguard their funds.

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