Large ETF Net Outflows This Week — Crypto Assets Face Macroeconomic Pressure

Hotcoin Research | August 18–22, 2025

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $4.02 trillion, with BTC accounting for 57.7% or $2.32 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $276.3 billion, up 0.45% over the past seven days, with USDT accounting for 60.39%.

Among the top 200 cryptocurrencies on CoinMarketCap, most saw gains, while a few saw losses. OKB saw a 123.59% increase over the past seven days, MORPHO saw a 35.13% increase, BIO saw a 131.53% increase, QTUM saw a 29.34% increase, and ZEC saw an 18.29% increase.

This week, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of $1.178 billion, while US Ethereum spot ETFs saw net outflows of $233 million.

Market Forecast (August 25–29):

This week, with increased issuance of stablecoins, US Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs saw significant net outflows. Platform coins such as $OKB saw significant gains this week. The RSI index is 58.39, indicating a neutral to strong bias. The Fear and Greed Index is 59 (same as last week).

BTC Core Range: $112,000–$117,000
ETH Core Range: $4,200–$4,700

On August 22, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated at the Jackson Hole symposium that “downside risks to employment are increasing.” The market interpreted this as a signal that Powell may be preparing for a September rate cut. Following his remarks, the probability of a September cut rose to 91.2%.

With less than a month until the Fed’s September decision, upcoming inflation data will be critical in shaping the outcome. We remain optimistic that Q4 could mark the peak of this cycle, leaving room for another upward move in the market.

Understanding the Present

Review of Major Events of the Week

1. August 18 — Ark Invest Holdings
   Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest Daily reported that the ARKK fund held 6.28% in Coinbase, 3.84% in Robinhood, 3.22% in Bitmine, and 3.17% in Circle.
2. August 18 — Solana Token Issuance Platforms
   According to Jupiter data, over the past 24 hours, pump.fun ranked first with 79.4% market share, followed by Letsbonk at 12.9% and BAGS at 3.08%.
3. August 19 — Figure Technology IPO
   Bloomberg reported that blockchain lending company Figure Technology Solutions Inc. has filed for an IPO with the SEC, planning to list on Nasdaq under the ticker FIGR.
4. August 20 — ALT5 Sigma Clarification
   ALT5 Sigma stated that Jon Isaac is not, and has never been, its president or advisor. The company also noted it is unaware of any SEC investigation into its activities.
5. August 21 — U.S. Jobless Claims
   Initial jobless claims for the week ending August 16 came in at 235,000, higher than expectations of 225,000 and the prior reading of 224,000.

Macroeconomics

1. August 29 — RBNZ Rate Cut
   The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates by 25 bps to 3%.
2. August 22 — Powell at Jackson Hole
   Fed Chair Powell stated that a shift in the balance of risks may require policy adjustments, noting that downside risks to employment are increasing. Markets interpreted this as a signal that Powell is preparing for a September rate cut.
3. August 22 — Fed Rate Cut Probability
   According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a September rate cut rose to 91.2% following Powell’s remarks.

ETFs

According to statistics, between August 18 and 22, US Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced a net outflow of $1.178 billion. As of August 22, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $23.876 billion, currently holding $20.869 billion, and IBIT (BlackRock) currently held $87.209 billion. The total market capitalization of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $152.474 billion.

US Ethereum spot ETFs experienced a net outflow of $233 million.

Foreseeing the Future

Events

1. WebX Asia 2025 — Tokyo, Japan | August 25–26
2. Bitcoin Asia 2025 — Hong Kong Convention & Exhibition Centre | August 28–29
3. Taipei Blockchain Week 2025 — Taipei | September 4–6
4. EDCON 2025 — Osaka, Japan | September 16–19
   Brings together the global Ethereum community to discuss protocol updates, ecosystem growth, and the future of Web3.
5. Korea Blockchain Week 2025 — South Korea | September 22–28

Project Progress

1. August 27 — Gryphon Merger Vote
   Gryphon shareholders will vote on the proposed merger and listing with American Bitcoin.
2. Until August 31 — CUDIS Airdrop Claims
   CUDIS airdrop claims remain open until 8:00 PM. Eligible users must have previously connected their verified Solana wallet and claimed the S1 airdrop.

Important Events

1. August 26 — RBA Minutes
   The Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its August monetary policy meeting at 9:30 AM.
2. August 28 — U.S. Jobless Claims
   Initial jobless claims (in 10,000s) for the week ending August 23 will be released at 8:30 PM.
3. August 29 — U.S. Core PCE (July)
   The annualized core PCE price index for July will be released at 8:30 PM.

Token Unlocks

1. August 25 — Velo (VELO)
   Unlocking 182M tokens (~$2.88M), representing 0.83% of circulating supply.
2. August 25 — Venom (VENOM)
   Unlocking 59.26M tokens (~$9.55M), representing 2.28% of circulating supply.
3. August 28 — Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET)
   Unlocking 3M tokens (~$2.04M), representing 0.14% of circulating supply.
4. August 28 — Jupiter (JUP)
   Unlocking 53.49M tokens (~$27.55M), representing 1.78% of circulating supply.
5. August 31 — Optimism (OP)
   Unlocking 31.24M tokens (~$24.11M), representing 1.9% of circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core research and investment arm of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into actionable tools. Through our “Weekly Insights” and “In-depth Research Reports,” we dissect market dynamics for you. Leveraging our exclusive “Hotcoin Selects” feature — which employs a dual-screening process by both AI and human experts — we help you pinpoint high-potential assets and minimize trial-and-error costs. Every week, our researchers also connect with you directly via livestreams to decipher hot topics and forecast market trends. We believe that our supportive engagement and expert guidance can empower more investors to navigate market cycles and seize the value opportunities in Web3.

Risk Disclaimer

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and all investments carry inherent risks. We strongly advise investors to thoroughly assess these risks and adhere to a strict risk management framework to safeguard their funds.

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