I. Introduction

In mid-August, ETH surged past $4,700, marking a four-year high, while SOL mostly fluctuated between $180–200 during the same period — far underperforming both BTC and ETH. Looking back at 2024, the meme frenzy ignited by platforms like Pump.fun once positioned Solana as a potential “Ethereum killer.” On January 19, 2025, SOL reached a new all-time high near $293, but soon after entered a phase of correction, sideways trading, and volatile sentiment — sharply diverging from ETH’s steadily strengthening trend.

Beneath the surface are structural differences in capital access, valuation anchors, and network narratives. What are the underlying reasons? Can Solana’s ecosystem shine again, and does SOL still have room to take off?

This report delivers a comprehensive analysis of Solana’s on-chain data and ecosystem performance, unpacks the key drivers of SOL’s underperformance relative to ETH, and evaluates both the strengths and weaknesses of a potential rebound. Based on this, we present our outlook for Solana in Q3–Q4 2025, offering readers a systematic reference.

II. Panorama of Solana Ecosystem Performance in 2025

Solana’s growth model stands apart from Ethereum’s. Instead of depending on costly transactions and a deflationary supply to drive value, Solana bets on high throughput and ultra-low fees — aiming to power massive volumes of long-tail and high-frequency activity on a single chain.

1. Core On-chain Metrics

Since the start of 2025, Solana has followed a pattern of sharp pullbacks followed by gradual recovery. Both TVL and stablecoin supply have climbed steadily, with TVL now around $10.42B and stablecoin market cap at $11.62B — restoring Solana’s “on-chain USD liquidity pools” to the $10B range.

Transaction activity remains strong, underscoring the network’s role in powering high-frequency and long-tail use cases. $SOL’s market cap dropped significantly in Q1 but has rebounded in waves since Q2. Meanwhile, the meme token resurgence has added a modest boost to DEX volumes and chain fees, though levels remain below the yearly highs.

Source：https://defillama.com/chain/solana

2. Meme Coin Sector

As the leading network for meme coins, Solana has produced breakout projects such as BONK, WIF, POPCAT, MOODENG, PNUT, TRUMP, PENGU, FARTCOIN, and USELESS. The Solana meme sector is defined by sharp volatility, rapid rotations, and event-driven surges. Its combined market cap currently stands at about $11.7B.

Top 5 Solana Memes of 2025

• PENGU — A “brand coin” built around a popular NFT IP. Toy sales have surpassed $10M across 3,100+ retail outlets, and Canary Capital has even filed for a PENGU ETF with the SEC. Its strong fundamentals and cultural traction make it one of the year’s top meme performers.
• BONK — A veteran Solana dog coin and community hub. It rode a wave of virality from LetsBonk.fun but has since entered correction.
• TRUMP — Launched in January as a politically themed meme. After trending downward, it briefly rebounded when Trump hosted a crypto-focused dinner in May, underscoring its heavy dependence on external events.
• FARTCOIN — Built on humor and virality, rewarding users for submitting fart memes and generating digital sound effects on trades. Its tie-in with the AI narrative makes it a potent FOMO trigger.
• USELESS — Markets its own “uselessness” as a parody of empty-token promises. The higher its price, the more “useless” it claims to be, drawing speculative attention.

来源：https://www.coingecko.com/en/categories/solana-meme-coins

3. Launchpad Sector

The Launchpad landscape on Solana has evolved beyond “cheaper and faster listings” into a new battleground centered on creator economies, buybacks, and governance.

• Pump.fun — Sparked a chainwide meme issuance boom with its 1% fee and simple launch flow. By mid-August 2025, weekly revenue reached ~$13.48M, pushing cumulative revenue past $800M. Its market share rocketed from 5% to ~90% in just two weeks, making it the clear sector leader.
• LetsBonk.fun — Launched in April 2025, it peaked at over 78% market share in July before pulling back. Its community-driven, low-barrier model keeps it a prominent challenger to Pump.fun.
• Bags — Built around creator revenue and royalty sharing, with strong ties to KOLs. Recorded over $1B in trading volume within 30 days.
• Moonshot — A fiat on-ramp app supporting Apple Pay and direct deposits. Once ranked #1 in the US App Store’s finance free apps category, significantly lowering the barrier for new retail entrants.
• Believe — Positioned as a social-media style launchpad using “reply to mint.” Faced criticism in June after pausing on-chain sharing and shifting toward off-chain settlement.

來源：https://dune.com/adam_tehc/memecoin-wars

4. DeFi Sector

Solana’s DeFi stack functions as core infrastructure for high-frequency and long-tail trading. Raydium and Orca anchor spot liquidity, Jupiter and Drift drive derivatives and aggregation, Kamino optimizes capital efficiency, and Jito/Marinade deliver a blend of yield and liquidity.

• Raydium — A veteran DEX/AMM that hosts most of Solana’s long-tail liquidity and launch pools. Strong fee revenue and clear cash-flow-to-token dynamics reinforce its position.
• Jupiter — The default Solana liquidity router, aggregating across DEXes. Its JPL pool centralizes liquidity, and the protocol is preparing to expand into lending.
• Kamino — Known for its “active vaults + lending” model, it consistently ranks among Solana’s top protocols by TVL and serves as a key hub for LPs.
• Jito — Captures MEV and redistributes it as user value through its client, block engine, and bundles. Its liquid staking token, jitoSOL, channels MEV back to stakers, while Jito tips have become an increasingly significant part of Solana’s real economic value (REV).

III. Why SOL Underperformed ETH

Backed by spot ETFs, Ethereum has established a full compliance–liquidity–derivatives cycle, reinforced by larger treasury allocations and its position as the leading on-chain financial hub. This gives ETH a stronger and more stable valuation anchor. In contrast, Solana’s ecosystem leans heavily on high-frequency and long-tail applications such as memes and launchpads — making SOL’s price action more tied to hype cycles and more exposed during risk-off market shifts.

1. ETF Inflows Gap

• SOL — The US-listed Solana ETF (SSK) provides staking yield but remains a complex, non-SEC spot product. Since launch, it has attracted only about $150M in inflows — minimal compared to peers. In contrast, ETH ETFs dominate the market, though upcoming approvals of VanEck and Grayscale’s Solana spot ETFs, expected around October, could unlock passive flows.
• ETH — Spot ETFs have already surpassed $22B in assets, cementing themselves as the primary gateway for institutional capital. BlackRock is now advancing a “stakable ETH ETF,” combining yield with compliance — a move that would further strengthen ETH’s role in long-term institutional portfolios.

2. Treasury Holdings Gap

• SOL — Upexi, often dubbed the “Solana MicroStrategy,” holds 1.8M SOL with a NAV of about $365M and recently added Arthur Hayes as an advisor. Other firms such as DFDV and BTCM are gradually accumulating, but their positions remain modest compared to ETH-focused treasuries.
• ETH — BitMine Immersion (BMNR), branded as the “ETH MicroStrategy,” manages a NAV of roughly $5.3B and is pursuing $20B in financing — making it second only to MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings. High-profile voices like Tom Lee continue to amplify Ethereum’s institutional narrative.

3. Narrative Positioning

• Solana — Built around single-chain throughput and ultra-low fees, Solana is optimized for consumer apps and speculative activity. Most RWA initiatives have struggled to gain traction, though CMBI × DigiFT’s USD money market fund token launch in August 2025 briefly pushed SOL above $200.
• Ethereum — Solidifying its position as the compliance-ready settlement layer. Ethereum hosts roughly half of all stablecoin supply and accounts for about 30% of gas usage. Robinhood recently launched stock tokens on an ETH L2, while Coinbase continues to scale Base, extending Ethereum’s institutional footprint.

4. Value Capture Mechanisms

• Solana — Revenue depends on transaction volume, app-level fees, and MEV capture. When meme activity and long-tail use cases slow, both fee income and valuation anchors quickly weaken.
• Ethereum — Through EIP-1559, base fees are burned, turning ETH net deflationary during periods of high demand. Coupled with staking yield, this gives Ethereum stronger and more durable supply-side anchors.

5. Historical Risk Memory & Credibility Discount

• Solana — The five-hour outage on February 6, 2024, along with occasional validator drops, has been resolved but still weighs on institutional risk assessments.
• Ethereum — Strong uptime and its broader compliance ecosystem reduce the “credibility discount,” a gap that widens further in Ethereum’s favor during periods of macro volatility.

IV. Can SOL Take Off Again? — Full Breakdown of Pros, Cons & Triggers

SOL’s foundation rests on high activity, low fees, MEV sharing, and app-level cash flows. Potential catalysts such as spot ETF approval or broader RWA compliance could spark a new growth trend. However, without confirmed ETF inflows, larger treasury backing, or fully restored network stability, SOL’s trajectory remains highly event-driven.

1. Bullish Logic (Pros)

• High throughput and low fees — Solana supports millions of daily interactions, making it a natural home for memes, long-tail tokens, and high-frequency DeFi.
• Compliance RWA pilot — CMBI × DigiFT launched a tokenized USD money market fund on Solana and Ethereum, marking the first compliant MMF on Solana. This provides both a fiat/stablecoin gateway and a capital-market narrative.
• Predictable inflation curve — Solana’s inflation started at 8% and decreases by 15% annually (roughly every 180 epochs) until it stabilizes at 1.5%. In 2025, the annualized rate is ~4.3–4.6%. Ongoing community debate around accelerating deflation helps strengthen mid- to long-term valuation anchors.
• Spot ETF as funding catalyst — VanEck and others have filed for Solana spot ETFs. Approval could mirror Ethereum’s path — compliance enabling passive flows and derivatives growth, ultimately drawing in institutional treasuries.

2. Bearish Logic (Cons)

• ETF inflows lagging — Ethereum spot ETFs have surpassed $22B in assets, while Solana remains in the application phase. The current US-listed SOL product with staking is not SEC-approved, limiting institutional demand.
• Treasury gap and weak influencer backing — ETH treasuries such as BMNR overshadow Solana’s peers like Upexi. Ethereum also benefits from stronger KOL support, giving it more “firepower” during market turbulence.
• Narrative disadvantage — Ethereum dominates compliance and finance narratives, whereas Solana leans on speculative applications. Meme and launchpad rotations drive activity but lack stable, long-term anchors.
• Intensifying competition — Lower fees on Ethereum mainnet, combined with rival chains like BSC, Base, and Sui, erode Solana’s “low fee” advantage.

V. Outlook for Q3–Q4 2025

Solana’s foundation remains high activity, low fees, and app-driven monetization. Whether SOL “takes off again” will depend on spot ETF approvals, scalable RWA adoption, and consistent network stability.

• Base Case — Q3 delivers trading recovery while the market waits for new catalysts. On-chain activity and DEX/perp volumes remain robust, with meme tokens moving in cyclical waves. SOL prices likely trend upward but remain caught between stronger fundamentals and lingering event-risk discounts.
• Bullish Case — Spot ETF approval by Q4, combined with RWAs expanding beyond money market funds into bonds, bills, and diversified funds, could reinforce Solana’s trifecta of capital access, sustainable cash flows, and network resilience. This would support a stronger rally, with SOL potentially breaking past its previous all-time high.
• Bearish Case — ETF delays or denials, fading meme/launchpad activity, or rising competition from rival chains could weigh on sentiment. Layer in macro tightening or lower ETH/L2 fees, and SOL may face volatile downturns with only weak rebounds.

Conclusion

In 2025, Solana has experienced sharp swings in sentiment — from the explosive meme frenzy at the start of the year to relative underperformance as Ethereum tightened its dominance mid-year. Market perception has shifted multiple times, yet Solana’s core identity as a high-performance blockchain remains intact. Its ecosystem has not stalled, even amid temporary cooling.

Looking ahead, Solana’s ability to regain leadership will hinge on converting network speed into lasting user value: retaining activity beyond speculative waves, expanding into broader applications, and earning mainstream capital’s trust within compliance frameworks. Encouragingly, institutional allocations, technical upgrades, and evolving narratives are already taking shape.

The current pullback may not signal weakness, but rather a consolidation phase — setting the stage for Solana’s next chance to take flight.

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Hotcoin Research, the core research and investment arm of Hotcoin Exchange, is committed to transforming professional crypto analysis into actionable strategies. Our three-pillar framework — trend analysis, value discovery, and real-time tracking — combines in-depth research, multi-angle project evaluation, and continuous market monitoring.

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