Hotcoin Research | August 11–15, 2025

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Market Overview
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization currently stands at $4.04 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.63% ($2.36 trillion). Stablecoins have a combined market cap of $273.4 billion, up 1.39% over the past seven days, with USDT making up 60.43% of the total.

Among the top 200 cryptocurrencies on CoinMarketCap, most recorded gains, while a few saw declines. Notable weekly performers included:

• OKB +111.49%
• SKL +109.68%
• AERO +63.84%
• USELESS +52.53%
• RAY +30.44%

In ETFs, US Bitcoin spot funds saw $547.7 million in net inflows this week, while US Ethereum spot funds recorded a much stronger $2.85 billion in net inflows.

Market Forecast (August 18–22, 2025)
This week, stablecoin issuance increased significantly, and US spot ETFs for both Bitcoin and Ethereum continued to attract inflows. Altcoins also posted sharp gains.

• The RSI is at 44.15, suggesting near overbought conditions.
• The Fear and Greed Index sits at 59, down from last week.

BTC Outlook:
If BTC holds above $123,218, it could test the $125,000 level. However, a hawkish Fed stance may trigger a pullback, with key support around $112,000.

ETH Outlook:
With continued accumulation from listed companies, ETH is expected to push toward $5,000, with support at $4,400.

Trading Strategy:

• Short-term traders should closely track resistance and support levels.
• Long-term investors may look to accumulate on pullbacks, keeping an eye on the September interest rate cut expectations and the upcoming Bitcoin halving window as potential catalysts.

Understanding the Present

Review of Major Events of the Week

1. Solana Token Issuance Platforms (Aug 12): According to Jupiter, pump.fun led the market with a 69.7% share, followed by Letsbonk (15.2%) and BAGS (9.14%) over the past 24 hours.
2. Ethereum Supply on CEXs (Aug 12): ETH balances on centralized exchanges fell to their lowest level since July 2016, down 6.7% so far in Q3 2025.
3. Peter Thiel’s ETH Investment (Aug 12): SEC filings revealed that billionaire Peter Thiel and his team acquired a 7.5% stake in ETHZilla (formerly 180 Life Sciences Corp.), an Ethereum treasury reserve firm.
4. ETH Market Cap Surpasses Netflix (Aug 13): As ETH briefly broke above $4,600, its market capitalization hit $556 billion, surpassing Netflix to rank 25th globally by asset value.
5. Bitmine Immersion Funding (Aug 13): Mining company BMNR announced plans to raise $20 billion to expand its ETH holdings.
6. Aave Borrowing Volume Record (Aug 12): Aave reported that active borrowing volume exceeded $25 billion, a new all-time high.
7. Bullish Stock Market Debut (Aug 14): Trading platform Bullish (BLSH) surged 83.78% on its US stock market debut, closing at $68 with a market cap of $9.94 billion, trading volume of $5.18 billion, and a turnover rate of 185.45%.
8. Bitcoin Hits New ATH (Aug 14): BTC briefly broke through $124,000, setting a new all-time high at $124,051 before easing to $123,930 (+3.29% in 24h).
9. US Treasury on Crypto Reserves (Aug 14): Treasury Secretary Benson stated the US will not purchase cryptocurrency reserves, opting instead to utilize confiscated assets.

Macroeconomy

1. US Core CPI (July, Aug 12): Core CPI rose to 3.1%, a five-month high, above market expectations of 3.0% and the previous 2.9%.
2. US CPI (July, Aug 12): Headline CPI came in at 2.7%, unchanged from the previous month and slightly below expectations of 2.8%.
3. Fed Rate Cut Expectations (Aug 14): After the release of July PPI data, markets priced a 92.5% probability of a 25 bps rate cut in September, with only 7.5% probability for rates to remain unchanged.
4. US Jobless Claims (Aug 14): Initial jobless claims for the week ending August 9 stood at 224,000, below expectations of 228,000. The previous figure was revised from 226,000 to 227,000.

ETF Flows (August 11–15, 2025)

Between August 11 and 15, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $547.7 million. As of August 15, GBTC (Grayscale) had accumulated total outflows of $23.76 billion, leaving it with $23.15 billion in holdings, while IBIT (BlackRock) remained the market leader with $88.6 billion under management. In total, the market capitalization of US Bitcoin spot ETFs stood at $153.04 billion.

During the same period, US Ethereum spot ETFs attracted significantly stronger demand, posting net inflows of $2.85 billion.

Future Forecast

Event Announcement

1. Coinfest Asia 2025 — Bali, Indonesia, August 21–22
2. WebX Asia 2025 — Tokyo, Japan, August 25–26
3. Bitcoin Asia 2025 — Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre, August 28–29

Important Events

1. Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision — 10:00 AM, August 20
2. US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 16–8:30 PM, August 21
3. Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech at Jackson Hole Symposium — 10:00 PM, August 22

Token Unlocks

1. ZKsync (ZK): 172M tokens unlock on August 17 (approximately $11.22 million and representing 3.61% of the circulating supply)
2. Fasttoken (FTN): 20M tokens unlock on August 18 (approximately $91.4 million and representing 2.08% of the circulating supply)
3. LayerZero (ZRO): 25.72M tokens unlock on August 20 (approximately $55.53 million and representing 8.53% of the circulating supply)
4. KAITO (KAITO): 23.35M tokens unlock on August 20 (approximately $25.22 million and representing 8.82% of the circulating supply)

About Us

Hotcoin Research, the core research and investment arm of Hotcoin Exchange, is committed to transforming professional crypto analysis into actionable strategies. Our three-pillar framework — trend analysis, value discovery, and real-time tracking — combines in-depth research, multi-angle project evaluation, and continuous market monitoring.

Through our Weekly Insights and In-depth Research Reports, we break down market dynamics and highlight emerging opportunities. Leveraging our exclusive Hotcoin Selects feature — which applies a dual-screening process by both AI and human experts — we help you identify high-potential assets while reducing trial-and-error costs. Our team also engages with the community via weekly livestreams, decoding hot topics and forecasting market trends to empower investors at all levels to navigate market cycles and capture value in Web3.

Risk Disclaimer

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and all investments carry inherent risks. We strongly encourage investors to stay informed, assess risks thoroughly, and follow strict risk management practices to protect their assets.

Connect with Us

Website: https://lite.hotcoingex.cc/r/Hotcoinresearch

X: x.com/HotcoinAcademy

Email: labs@hotcoin.com