Hotcoin Research | August 4–8, 2025

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

As of August 8, 2025, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at $3.86 trillion, with Bitcoin accounting for 60% of the market, or $2.3 trillion. The stablecoin market capitalization has risen 1.04% over the past seven days to $269.8 billion, with USDT making up 61.21% of that total.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most recorded gains over the past week. Notable performers include MNT, which rose 41.91%, PENDLE with a 31.81% gain, PUMP up 29.16%, MYX surging 1420.3%, and TOSHI advancing 22.52%. US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of $253.6 million, while US Ethereum spot ETFs attracted $326.4 million in net inflows.

Crypto Market Forecast: August 11–15

Looking ahead to the week of August 11–15, stablecoin issuance is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by sustained net inflows into both US Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs. Ethereum’s recent breakout above $4,000 highlights its strong momentum, with the RSI index climbing to 62.75, signaling overbought conditions, and the Fear and Greed Index rising to 68, higher than last week.

Bitcoin is likely to fluctuate between $114,500 and $118,500, with the direction of any breakout largely dependent on upcoming US CPI data. If the data supports expectations for a rate cut, BTC could test $120,000. Conversely, stronger-than-expected data could see BTC retreat to the $112,500 support level.

Ethereum is expected to continue outperforming Bitcoin, trading primarily in the $3,750–$4,200 range. Any positive news from the SEC regarding spot ETFs could drive further gains for ETH.

For short-term investors, a range-bound trading strategy remains appropriate — buying near support and taking partial profits near resistance. Medium- to long-term investors may consider building positions in batches during pullbacks, focusing on strong support levels around $112,500 for BTC and $3,300 for ETH.

Understanding the Present

Review of Major Events — Week of August 4–8, 2025

1. On August 6, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued a statement confirming that liquidity staking activities are not considered securities.
2. On August 6, Base published a downtime report, revealing a 33-minute block production outage on August 5 caused by an improperly configured backup sorter.
3. On August 5, JD.com’s JD Coin Chain addressed false reports and rumors in the market, stating it is preparing to apply for a Hong Kong stablecoin license.
4. On August 7, Etherscan data showed daily Ethereum network transactions reaching 1.87 million, approaching the all-time high of 1.96 million set on January 14, 2024.
5. On August 6, Cboe BZX, a subsidiary of the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), filed a 19b-4 application with the SEC seeking approval for the VanEck Ethereum ETF to stake ETH via trusted collateral providers and earn rewards as income.
6. On the same day, the SEC and Ripple officially concluded their four-year legal battle, with the court upholding the original trial ruling.
7. On August 8, Donald Trump announced the nomination of pro-crypto official Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board.

Macroeconomy

1. On August 6, the White House announced that President Trump signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on goods from India in response to India’s continued purchase of Russian oil. The announcement caused oil prices to briefly rise, hitting an intraday high.
2. On August 7, the Bank of England cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, from 4.25% to 4.00%. This marked the fifth rate cut in the current cycle and was in line with market expectations.
3. On August 7, initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending August 2 came in at 226,000, compared to expectations of 221,000.
4. On August 8, CME’s FedWatch data showed a 92.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a 7.3% probability of rates remaining unchanged.

ETF Flows — Week of August 4–8, 2025

Between August 4 and 8, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $253.6 million. As of August 8, GBTC (Grayscale) had cumulative outflows of $23.662 billion and currently holds $21.058 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) holds $85.956 billion. The total market capitalization of all US Bitcoin spot ETFs stands at $152.024 billion.

During the same period, US Ethereum spot ETFs posted net inflows of $326.4 million.

Forecasting the Future

Event Announcements

1. Coinfest Asia 2025 will be held in Bali, Indonesia, from August 21 to 22.
2. WebX Asia 2025 will be held in Tokyo, Japan, from August 25 to 26.
3. Bitcoin Asia 2025 will take place at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre from August 28 to 29.

Important Events

1. The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision at 12:30 PM on August 12.
2. The United States will release its unadjusted CPI for July (annual rate) at 8:30 PM on August 12.
3. The United States will release its seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims (in thousands) for the previous week at 8:30 PM on August 14.

Token Unlocks

1. Aptos (APT) will unlock 11.3 million tokens on August 12, valued at $53.04 million and representing 2.2% of the circulating supply.
2. Avalanche (AVAX) will unlock 1.67 million tokens on August 15, valued at approximately $39.14 million and representing 0.33% of the circulating supply.
3. Starknet (STRK) will unlock 126 million tokens on August 15, valued at $16.18 million and representing 5.98% of the circulating supply.
4. Sei (SEI) will unlock 55.56 million tokens on August 15, valued at approximately $17.12 million and representing 1.21% of the circulating supply.
5. Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock 92.63 million tokens on August 16, valued at approximately $39.11 million and representing 2.04% of the circulating supply.

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