Hotcoin Research Market Insights | July 28-August 1, 2025

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $3.7 trillion, with BTC accounting for 61.2% of the total, or $2.26 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $266.9 billion, having increased by 0.65% over the past seven days, with USDT accounting for 61.67%.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, a small number saw gains, while the majority saw declines. TON saw a 13.64% increase over the past seven days, ZORA saw a 40.39% increase, ZBCN saw a 26.02% increase, USELESS saw a 31.66% decrease, and FARTCOIN saw a 31.79% decrease.

This week, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $642.9 million, while US Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $155 million.

Market Forecast(August 4th-8th):

This week, stablecoins saw a small increase in issuance, while US Ethereum spot ETFs continued to see net inflows. However, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw significant net outflows, and altcoins experienced a slight correction. The RSI index was 36, indicating weakness. The Fear and Greed Index is 54 (lower than last week).

On August 1st, the US non-farm payroll data was disappointing, with July employment figures falling far short of expectations. The probability of a September Fed rate cut has increased to 77.7%, suggesting a second rate cut this year, but caution is warranted regarding the risk of a market correction in August.

BTC: If it falls below $115,000, it could test support at $112,000; if it breaks above $120,000, it could target $125,000.

ETH: Support at $3,500, with an upside target of $4,000.

Understanding the Present

Review of Major Events of the Week

1. On July 29, Bloomberg reported that Coinbase was in advanced talks to acquire Indian crypto exchange CoinDCX;

2. On July 31, according to data from StrategicEthReserve, Bitmine, Sharplink Gaming, and The Ether Machine each held more ETH than the Ethereum Foundation;

3. On July 31, Stable completed a $28 million seed round, co-led by Bitfinex and Hack VC;

4. On August 1, Coinbase plans to add tokenized stocks, prediction markets, and early-stage token sales to its offerings, creating a “full-service trading platform”;

5. On August 1, Reuters reported that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) launched Project Crypto, an initiative aimed at modernizing securities regulations and enabling on-chain integration of U.S. financial markets;

6. The Ethereum ETF saw net inflows for 20 consecutive days, reaching a record $5.4 billion;

7. The SEC approved a physical redemption mechanism for ETFs, allowing BTC/ETH to be directly exchanged for ETF shares.

8. Trump’s tariff policy took effect on August 1st, and the market is focused on capital flows in emerging markets.

Macroeconomy

1. On July 31st, the Bank of Japan kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting and meeting market expectations.

2. On July 31st, the Federal Reserve kept its interest rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive time. The Fed kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, meeting market expectations.

3. On August 1st, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that non-farm payroll gains in May were revised from 144,000 to 19,000, and June’s non-farm payroll gains were revised from 147,000 to 14,000.

4. On August 1st, the U.S. non-farm payrolls for July were 73,000, seasonally adjusted, compared to expectations of 110,000.

ETFs

According to statistics, between July 28 and August 1, US Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced a net outflow of $642.9 million. As of August 1, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $23.665 billion, currently holding $20.503 billion, and IBIT (BlackRock) currently held $83.781 billion. The total market capitalization of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $147.994 billion.

US Ethereum spot ETFs experienced a net inflow of $155 million.

Foreseeing the Future

Upcoming Events

1. CONVICTION 2025, the Vietnam Blockchain and AI Summit, will be held in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, from August 9–10, 2025.

2. Coinfest Asia 2025 will be held in Bali, Indonesia, from August 21–22, 2025.

3. WebX Asia 2025 will be held in Tokyo, Japan, from August 25–26, 2025.

4. Bitcoin Asia 2025 will be held at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre, from August 28–29.

Key Events

1. At 7:00 PM on August 7, the UK will release its Bank of England interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report.

2. At 8:30 PM on August 7, the US will release initial jobless claims (in 10,000 people) for the week ending August 2.

3. At 8:30 PM on August 8, Canada will release its July employment figures (in 10,000 people).

4. Brazilian lawmakers are preparing to debate a new cryptocurrency tax proposal put forward by President Lula da Silva. The proposal would impose a flat 17.5% fee on all transactions. Compared to the old tax system, it eliminates the income tax exemption for small businesses and targets decentralized finance activities through temporary measures that took effect in June. The deadline for the decision is October 8; if the measure is not approved by then, it will expire.

Token Unlocks

1. IOTA (IOTA) will unlock 8.63 million tokens on August 5th, valued at approximately $1.56 million and representing 0.22% of the circulating supply.

2. EIGEN (EigenLayer) will unlock 1.29 million tokens on August 6th, valued at approximately $1.43 million and representing 0.41% of the circulating supply.

3. IMX (Immutable) will unlock 24.52 million tokens on August 8th, valued at approximately $12.31 million and representing 1.3% of the circulating supply.

4. MOVE (Movement) will unlock 50 million tokens on August 9th, valued at approximately $6.51 million and representing 1.92% of the circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core research and investment arm of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into actionable tools. Through our “Weekly Insights” and “In-depth Research Reports,” we dissect market dynamics for you. Leveraging our exclusive “Hotcoin Selects” feature — which employs a dual-screening process by both AI and human experts — we help you pinpoint high-potential assets and minimize trial-and-error costs. Every week, our researchers also connect with you directly via livestreams to decipher hot topics and forecast market trends. We believe that our supportive engagement and expert guidance can empower more investors to navigate market cycles and seize the value opportunities in Web3.

Risk Disclaimer

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and all investments carry inherent risks. We strongly advise investors to thoroughly assess these risks and adhere to a strict risk management framework to safeguard their funds.

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