“Big Beautiful Bill Act” Passes in the House — U.S. June Non-Farm Payrolls Exceed Expectations
2025-07-06 16:03
Hotcoin 研究院
2025-07-06 16:03
Hotcoin 研究院
2025-07-06 16:03
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“Big Beautiful Bill Act” Passes in the House — U.S. June Non-Farm Payrolls Exceed Expectations

Hotcoin Research | Market Insights: June 30 — July 4, 2025

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

As of now, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at $3.32 trillion, with BTC dominance at 64.6%, equivalent to $2.14 trillion. The total stablecoin market cap is $255.3 billion, with a 7-day increase of 0.83%. USDT accounts for 62.45% of the stablecoin market.

  • BTC is currently priced at $107,945, showing range-bound behavior this week.
  • ETH is trading at $2,512, also range-bound.
  • Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most tokens gained, with a few exceptions:
  • PENGU: +49.38% (7d)
  • BONK: +27.73% (7d)
  • PLUME: +36.98% (7d)
  • MOODENG: +31.39% (7d)

ETF Flows:

  • U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETFs saw $770 million in net inflows this week.
  • U.S. Ethereum Spot ETFs recorded $219.6 million in net inflows.

On July 4, the Fear & Greed Index stands at 68 (up from last week):

  • Market sentiment: 2 days neutral, 5 days greedy.

Market Forecast

This week saw continued stablecoin issuance and positive net inflows into both Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs. BTC and ETH remain in a consolidation phase.

  • RSI stands at 47.21 (neutral).
  • The Fear & Greed Index primarily reflects greed.

The U.S. passed the “Beautiful Act”, a tax cut and spending bill. June’s non-farm payroll data beat expectations, leading markets to believe there’s a 78.8% probability the Fed will hold rates steady in July.

  • Next week’s BTC range is expected to be $106,000–$111,000.
  • Watch out for the U.S. tariff agreement on July 9, a major summer development. While its crypto impact may be lower than February’s, caution is advised.
  • Tokenized U.S. stocks are booming — Hotcoin has launched a dedicated section.

Major Weekly Highlights

  1. June 29 — The Trump family’s crypto project WLFI reported $1.25B in 24h volume for stablecoin USD1, second only to USDT and USDC.
  2. June 30 — Guotai Haitong released a report predicting more Hong Kong brokerages will enter virtual assets. Valuations for non-bank financials in Hong Kong are expected to benefit from A-share return policies.
  3. June 30 — REX-OSPREY CEO announced a staking-enabled Solana ETF to begin trading Wednesday.
  4. June 30 — Robinhood (HOOD) unveiled a new Arbitrum-based blockchain and tokenized U.S. stock trading for European users, featuring over 200 stocks and ETFs, aiming to become an “all-in-one investment platform.”
  5. July 1 — American Bitcoin, a Trump-affiliated company, raised $220M for Bitcoin purchases and mining, including $10M in BTC-denominated equity.
  6. July 1 — Circle (CRCL.K) applied to establish a national trust bank in the U.S.
  7. July 1 — Amber Group’s Amber International (NASDAQ: AMBR) raised $25.5M in a private placement round with backing from Mile Green, Harvest Capital, Pantera Capital, Choco Up, and others.
  8. July 2 — Public companies bought 245,510 BTC in H1 2025 — over 2x more than ETFs, which acquired 118,424 BTC.
  9. July 2 — The Ethereum Community Foundation (ECF) was launched to support institutional ETH infrastructure adoption and drive price appreciation.
  10. July 3 — The Trump family has made $620M from crypto projects, nearly 10% of their $6.2B net worth.
  11. July 3 — The Crypto Market Structure Committee hearing will be held on July 9, with attendance from Ripple’s CEO.
  12. July 4 — Trump’s “Beautiful Act” passed in the House of Representatives.
  13. July 4 — On-chain sleuth ZachXBT revealed UAE authorities arrested WhiteRock Finance founder Ildar Ilham over a $30M scam via ZKasino.

Macro Updates

July 1 — Bloomberg’s James Seyffart forecasts a new wave of ETF approvals in H2 2025:

  • 95%: Combo/Index funds, Litecoin, SOL, XRP
  • 90%: Dogecoin, HBAR, Cardano, Polkadot, Avalanche
  • 60%: SUI
  • 50%: Tron/TRX, Pengu

July 3 — U.S. June non-farm payrolls:

  • +147,000 jobs (vs. 110,000 expected)
  • Previous revised from 139,000 to 144,000

July 3 — U.S. June unemployment rate: 4.1%, better than expected.

July 4 — President Trump announced 60–70% tariffs on some countries and 10–20% tariffs on others, effective August 1, with notifications to be sent starting Friday.

July 2 — According to CME FedWatch:

  • July hold probability: 78.8%
  • July rate cut (25bps): 21.2%
  • September rate cut (25bps): 72.3%, (50bps): 18.8%

ETF

From June 30 — July 4:

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Events:

  1. Bitcoin Asia 2025: August 28–29, Hong Kong Convention & Exhibition Centre
  2. WebX Asia 2025: August 25–26, Tokyo, Japan
  3. TOKEN2049 Singapore 2025: October 1–2

Project Updates

  • Aethir Edge Tokenomics 2.0 goes live on July 13, introducing staking-based rewards:
  • ATH staking required
  • Bronze, Silver, Gold tiers
  • Up to 240 ATH/day rewards

Key Events to Watch

  1. U.S.–EU tariff talks extended to July 9
  2. July 8, 12:30 — RBA rate decision
  3. July 9, 09:30 — China June CPI (YoY)
  4. July 9, 10:00 — RBNZ rate decision
  5. July 10, 20:30 — U.S. Initial Jobless Claims

Token Unlocks

About Us

As the central research hub of the Hotcoin ecosystem, Hotcoin Research delivers professional analysis and forward-looking insights for global crypto asset investors. We have established a comprehensive three-pronged service framework — trend analysis, value discovery, and real-time tracking — integrating in-depth cryptocurrency industry trend research, a multi-faceted project evaluation framework, and 24/7 market monitoring.

These services are further enhanced by our biweekly Emerging Coin Selection Live Strategy Sessions and daily blockchain headlines updates, offering precise market insights and actionable strategies tailored for investors of all experience levels.

By leveraging advanced data analytics models and a robust industry network, we empower novice investors to build a solid understanding of the market while helping institutional players identify and capture alpha opportunities.

Together, we navigate the rapidly evolving crypto landscape, leveraging data-driven decision-making and strategic resource integration to seize value-growth opportunities in the Web3 era.

Risk Disclaimer

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and all investments carry inherent risks. We strongly advise investors to thoroughly assess these risks and adhere to a strict risk management framework to safeguard their funds.

Website:https://lite.hotcoingex.cc/r/Hotcoinresearch

X:x.com/HotcoinAcademy

Mail:labs@hotcoin.com

【免责声明】市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成投资建议,用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。

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