Israel-Iran Conflict Sends Gold Soaring, Crypto Tumbles | Hotcoin Research Market Insights (June 9–13, 2025)

Cryptocurrency Market Overview

As of now, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at $3.34 trillion, with BTC dominance at 61.55% ($2.06 trillion). The stablecoin market cap is $251.5 billion, up 0.63% in the past 7 days, with USDT accounting for 62.14% of the share.

BTC is trading sideways at $105,300, and ETH is also range-bound at $2,551.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most saw declines while a few outperformed, including:

• KAIA: +45.16%
• AERO: +45.15%
• AB: +43.15%
• RVN: +43.63%

Net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs this week totaled $1.3703 billion; U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs saw $527.6 million in net inflows.

The Fear & Greed Index as of June 14 stands at 52 (higher than last week), with 4 days of Neutral and 3 days of Greed sentiment.

Market Outlook

Stablecoin issuance continued to rise this week, accompanied by strong inflows into both BTC and ETH spot ETFs. BTC and ETH prices remained in a consolidation phase.

The RSI is at 39.65, indicating weakness, and the Altcoin Season Index is at 24. U.S. CPI and PPI data for May came in line with expectations, and the inflationary impact of tariffs hasn’t yet materialized. Sentiment remains oscillating between Neutral and Greed.

The probability of a Fed rate cut in June is only 2.2%, suggesting cuts may begin in Q3 2025. As markets have largely priced in no rate cut for June, the upcoming rate decision is expected to have a limited impact. BTC is expected to trade between $102,000 and $107,000 next week.

However, with the escalating Israel-Iran conflict, markets may experience short-term volatility. Longer-term, we are likely in the final stage of this bull cycle. If the U.S. stablecoin bill is passed in August and the Fed cuts rates in September, a major rally could follow. Current strategy: buy the dip.

Weekly Recap: Key Events

1. June 9: A substitute amendment to the U.S. CLARITY Act was released. It will serve as the foundation for Republican lawmakers during the House Financial Services Committee’s markup.
2. June 9: Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg ETF analyst, reported that BlackRock’s IBIT surpassed $70 billion AUM in just 341 days, five times faster than GLD’s record.
3. June 10: The Ethereum Foundation published its first report under the “1 Trillion Security” initiative, outlining ecosystem security challenges.
4. June 11: Meme project Slerf teased its upcoming token launch platform, Slerrrfpad, via product screenshots on X (Twitter).
5. June 12: The U.S. Senate passed a procedural vote (68–30) on the GENIUS Stablecoin Bill, initiating full Senate debate.
6. June 11: Stripe agreed to acquire crypto wallet provider Privy, following its earlier acquisition of Bridge.
7. June 11: Sonic Labs announced Season 2 of its S token airdrop will start on June 18.
8. June 13: Israel’s Defense Minister warned of potential missile and drone attacks in retaliation to Israel’s strike on Iran.
9. June 13: Coinbase announced it will launch perpetual futures contracts in the U.S.
10. June 12: DTCC, a core U.S. financial infrastructure firm, is exploring stablecoin issuance, per The Information.
11. June 13: Japanese mobile game studio Gumi purchased ¥1 billion ($6.96M) worth of Bitcoin.

Macroeconomic Developments

1. June 12: Canadian-listed firm Matador Technologies bought 5.38 BTC, bringing holdings to ~69 BTC.
2. June 13: Japan’s Remixpoint acquired 56.87 BTC (~$5.915M) at an average price of $104,000, crossing the 1,000 BTC milestone.
3. June 11: Trump posted on Truth Social that a U.S.-China agreement is near, involving rare earth supplies and 55%/10% tariff exchange.
4. June 11: U.S. May CPI YoY at 2.4% (vs. 2.5% expected); Core CPI MoM at 0.1% (vs. 0.3% expected).
5. June 12: U.S. jobless claims for the week ending June 7 reached 248,000 (vs. 240,000 expected).
6. May 31: Per CME FedWatch, only 2.2% probability of a 25 bps rate cut in June; 97.8% chance of no change.

ETF Highlights

Between June 9–13, net inflows to U.S. spot BTC ETFs were $1.3703 billion.
As of June 13:

• GBTC (Grayscale): total outflows of $23.193 billion, remaining holdings $19.468 billion.
• IBIT (BlackRock): holdings reached $70.132 billion.
• Total market cap of all U.S. spot BTC ETFs: $129.738 billion.
• Spot ETH ETFs net inflows: $527.6 million.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Events

1. NFT NYC 2026 — June 23–25 in New York, USA
2. Permissionless IV — June 24–26 in New York, USA
3. EthCC 8 — June 30–July 3 in Cannes, France
4. IVS2025 KYOTO — July 2–4 in Kyoto, Japan

Project Updates

1. ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) will conduct a 3:1 stock split on June 16 to improve accessibility.
2. Farcaster to launch three premium features during the week of June 16.
3. Lido will terminate staking on Polygon by June 16, 2025.
4. Nansen Points Season 1 launches on June 17, rewarding staking, subscriptions, and referrals.

Major Events

1. June 14: Massive military parade in Washington, D.C. to mark the 250th anniversary of the U.S. Army, coinciding with Trump’s birthday and Flag Day.
2. June 17: Bank of Japan rate decision.
3. June 18: U.S. jobless claims report.
4. June 18: Federal Reserve rate decision.
5. June 19: Bank of England rate decision.
6. June 19: Japan May Core CPI YoY data.

Token Unlocks

1. ApeCoin (APE) — June 17: 1,538 tokens unlocked (~$10.53M), 1.54% of supply.
2. Cronos (CRO) — June 17: 1.17B tokens unlocked (~$107M), 1.17% of supply.
3. Pixels (PIXEL) — June 19: 89.37M tokens unlocked (~$3.43M), 1.79% of supply.
4. Polyhedra Network (ZKJ) — June 19: 15.5M tokens unlocked (~$30.89M), 1.55% of supply.
5. Zksync (ZK) — June 19: 759M tokens unlocked (~$391.3M), 3.62% of supply.
6. Bittensor (TAO) — June 21: 216K tokens unlocked (~$81.05M), 1.03% of supply.

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Risk Disclaimer

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and subject to rapid changes. All investments carry risk. We strongly encourage investors to stay informed, assess market dynamics carefully, and implement sound risk management strategies to protect their assets.

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