How will interest rate cut play out facing the current tariff war? An unsuccessful tariff negotiation may lead to bigger and sooner rate cuts.
The current tariff negotiation faces two scenarios. The first scenario is that negotiations lack substantial progress, and tariffs remain high after 90 days. The Trump administration would maintain a 10% baseline tariff on major trade partners, a 25% tariff on imported automobiles and auto parts, as well as tariffs against China, resulting in an effective tariff rate still at 28.4%. The second scenario is that negotiations achieve tangible results, and tariffs are reduced within 90 days.
Under the high-tariff scenario, the Fed may cut interest rates more quickly and by a larger magnitude. The economic damage caused by high tariffs would push up the unemployment rate and significantly increase recession risks, forcing the Fed to respond. The Fed could begin cutting rates as early as July. For the market, such rate cuts could also be considered bad cuts, as they would reinforce recession fears, putting pressure on risky assets and benefiting safe-haven assets such as bonds. In the other scenario, rate cuts would occur more slowly and less frequently. The Fed would remain patient, possibly waiting until after inflation pressures have notably eased to initiate rate cuts.
This week’s upcoming economic data includes the advance reading of the US first quarter GDP on April 30th. Some forecasts indicate there could only be modest growth, or even contraction. April payroll data will be released on Friday May 2nd, which is expected to be resilient. Other key data includes core PCE data and personal income and spending on Wednesday, PMI on Thursday, and the goods trade on Tuesday and factory orders data on Friday. The goods trade and factory orders data is expected to show the impact of US tariffs.
The dollar index has seen gradual recovery from the shock of market unconfidence, and has been rising since Tuesday. The dollar index sat above the $99 line last Friday.
The total assets decreased for $183mn last week. The Fed is currently waiting for the budget bill progress from the congress to have some further updates on the QT policies.
Gold price has seen a dipping trend in the past week as the US-China trade tensions ease. The price went down for ~5% from the ATH of $3,500, and sat at $3,319.29.
Bitcoin and Ethereum were priced at around $94,700 and $1,800 as of Monday, reflecting an increase of roughly 8.3% and 10.0%, respectively, on a weekly basis. Last week, the market rebounded sharply. Although sentiment in U.S. equities remained broadly pessimistic, BTC showed a divergent trend by rising even as U.S. stocks declined.
As for altcoins, market attention was primarily focused on tokens on Binance Alpha and certain meme tokens on Solana. Notably, Sui stood out as its price surged over 60%.
The total crypto market capitalization stood at $2.93 trillion as of Monday. Excluding BTC and ETH, the total market cap of altcoins priced at $833.74 billion, showing a respective increase by 8.1% and 7% weekly. Last week, newly launched tokens included Zora and Initia, with market capitalizations of $50 million and $100 million respectively. As market conditions improve, it is expected that a large number of VC-backed tokens will seek to list as soon as possible.
In terms of on-chain stablecoin volume, Solana’s market share fell from 5.44% to 5.08% compared to last month, while Ethereum’s market share rose from 55.71% to 56.56%.
As for the proportion of active stablecoin transfer users, Polygon’s market share increased from 12.17% to 15.86%, while BSC’s market share declined from 36.6% to 28.27%.
Last week, apart from the attention drawn by meme tokens on Solana, the Sui ecosystem also saw growing participation. Both Sui and tokens within its ecosystem experienced significant price increases, including Walrus with a 50% increase, Deepbook with a 131% increase, and Cetus with a 105% increase.
1.RockawayX Ventures raised $125M for Second Fund, prioritizing Solana and Web3 infrastructures
Crypto venture firm RockawayX has closed its second fund, raising $125M to back early-stage crypto startups with a heavy focus on the Solana ecosystem. Between 50% to 75% of the fund, approximately $62 — $94M is earmarked for Solana-based projects, building on RockawayX’s early investments in Solana Labs and applications like Kamino Finance and Squads. Founded in 2018, RockawayX operates as an engineering-first investor, running validators from European data centers and providing liquidity and hardware services for decentralized networks. Beyond venture funding, it also manages a $110M credit fund and supports on-chain trading apps such as Wormhole and 1inch through its solver unit. The new fund, which exceeded its original $120M target, has already deployed capital into projects like DoubleZero, Hyperlend, and Silhouette. RockawayX attributes the strong interest from investors, including family offices, private equity firms, and Solana co-founders Anatoly Yakovenko and Raj Gokal to solid returns from its first fund.
2. Circle launches Circle Payments Network to modernize cross-border efficiency with stablecoins
Circle has officially launched the Circle Payments Network (CPN), a new payment and remittance infrastructure designed to connect banks, fintechs, and payment providers through stablecoins like USDC and EURC. CPN allows institutions to move money globally at internet speed with 24/7 real-time settlement. Supporting use cases such as invoice payments, remittances, treasury services, and payroll, the network already counts over 20 partners, including dLocal, WorldRemit, BVNK, Yellow Card, etc. The initiative marks Circle’s strategic pivot back to its roots in payments, building on the growing acceptance of stablecoins as a transformative financial tool. By providing programmable money infrastructure, Circle aims to modernize global money movement and ultimately position itself as a competitor to legacy giants like Visa and Mastercard. The network launch comes amid a broader regulatory opening for stablecoins worldwide and at a time when billions of dollars are already being transferred cross-border using stablecoins.
2. GSR Backs Upexi’s Solana Treasury with $100M, increasing intersection between TraFi and DeFi
GSR, a leading crypto trading and investment firm, has anchored a $100M private investment in public equity (PIPE) into Nasdaq-listed Upexi, marking a major step toward integrating Solana into traditional corporate treasury strategies. Upexi, a consumer product company, plans to accumulate and stake SOL to create a crypto-based treasury aimed at generating long-term appreciation and yield for shareholders. This move aligns with a growing trend of public firms exploring blockchain-based financial infrastructure, following recent similar initiatives like Janover’s Solana accumulation. GSR highlighted Solana’s speed, scalability, and vibrant ecosystem as key factors for institutional adoption, emphasizing their belief that Solana will serve as a foundation for future financial applications. Following the announcement, Upexi’s stock surged over 600%, reflecting strong investor enthusiasm, noting that such moves demonstrate the increasing intersection between traditional finance and DeFi.
1.Arch Labs Raises $13M to launch ArchVM, bringing smartcontracts to Bitcoin
Arch Labs has raised $13M in a Series A round led by Pantera Capital, with participation from Multicoin Capital, to launch Arch Virtual Machine (ArchVM), a platform designed to bring smart contract capabilities directly to Bitcoin’s blockchain. Valued at $200M, Arch Labs seeks to solve Bitcoin’s limitations for decentralized applications by introducing a native virtual machine, enabling users to create crypto loans, NFTs, and other decentralized services without moving Bitcoin to other ecosystems. Since launching its testnet in November, ArchVM has attracted over 300,000 wallets and several DeFi projects, with a full public launch planned for early May. Unlike earlier attempts like Rootstock and Stacks, Arch Labs plans to eventually decentralize governance through a foundation model, mirroring Ethereum’s approach, and transition operational control to community supporters. A native token will accompany ArchVM’s launch, used for network fees and distributed to investors under a SAFT arrangement.
2. Inflow Raises $1,1M to empower a Self-custodial global payment network
InflowPay has raised $1,1M in pre-seed funding from investors including Rockstart, GnosisVC, AllianceDAO, Plug and Play, and Stake Capital, alongside notable angels from Ledger and Primonial Reim. The company is building a self-custodial payment platform designed to enable freelancers, agencies, and e-commerce businesses in emerging markets to receive global payments faster, more securely, and with dramatically lower fees. Traditional financial systems often lock out these regions with high costs, slow settlement times, and arbitrary account freezes, causing freelancers to lose billions annually and stifling economic growth. Inflow offers near-instant settlements and eliminates custodial risks, giving users full control over their funds. With 1.57B freelancers globally, many in rapidly growing economies, the need for inclusive payment infrastructure is more urgent than ever. Inflow’s platform directly addresses the barriers preventing these entrepreneurs from accessing international clients and scaling their businesses.
3. Symbiotic secures $29M in SeriesA to launch Universal-staking as a new layer for blockchains
Symbiotic has raised $29M in Series A funding led by Pantera Capital, with participation from Coinbase Ventures and over 100 angels from major blockchain teams like Aave, Polygon, and StarkWare, to advance its vision of Universal Staking. Moving beyond traditional restaking, Symbiotic introduces a modular coordination layer that allows flexible economic alignment and decentralized security across blockchain networks. Universal Staking enables protocols to adapt their security models over time, combining assets across L1s, L2s, and modular chains without rebuilding infrastructure. Following its mainnet launch on Ethereum in Jan-2025, Symbiotic already supports 14 networks and over 35 ongoing integrations, facilitating use cases like decentralized insurance, cross-chain collateral, and sophisticated staking tranches. Enhanced SDKs, customizable slashing mechanisms, and risk modeling tools are also being developed to support expanding demand. Projects like Hyperlane and Spark are leveraging Symbiotic to build crypto economic guarantees and scalable validator participation models.
The number of deals closed in the previous week was 20, with Data having 8 deals, representing 40% for each sector of the total number of deals. Meanwhile, Infra had 6 (30%), Social had 1 (5%), GameFi had 2 (10%) and DeFi had 3 (15%) deals
The total amount of disclosed funding raised in the previous week was $227M, 35% deals (7/20) in previous week didn’t public the raised amount. The top funding came from Data sector with $131M. Most funded deals: Alpaca $52M, Nous Research $50M
Total weekly fundraising fell to $227M for the 4rd week of Apr-2025, a decrease of -37% compared to the week prior. Weekly fundraising in the previous week was up +33% year over year for the same period.
Gate Ventures, the venture capital arm of Gate.io, is focused on investments in decentralized infrastructure, middleware, and applications that will reshape the world in the Web 3.0 age. Working with industry leaders across the globe, Gate Ventures helps promising teams and startups that possess the ideas and capabilities needed to redefine social and financial interactions.
Website: https://ventures.gate.io/
Twitter: https://x.com/gate_ventures
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