Tariff Policy Eases — Fed Rate Cut Hints Push BTC Back to $95,000 Hotcoin Research | Market Insights: April 21–25, 2025

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total cryptocurrency market cap stands at $2.94 trillion, with BTC dominance at 63.45%, equivalent to $1.87 trillion.
Stablecoin market cap is $238 billion, up 1.61% over the past 7 days, with USDT accounting for 61.66% of the stablecoin market.

This week, BTC showed a steady upward trend and is now priced at $94,734; ETH moved within a range and is now at $1,800.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most tokens declined while a few rose sharply:

• VIRTUAL: +98.2% (7-day change)
• BRETT: +92.8%
• TRUMP: +81.1%
• TURBO: +122.77%

This week’s ETF flows:

• U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETFs net inflow: $3.033 billion
• U.S. Ethereum Spot ETFs net inflow: $157 million

The Fear & Greed Index on April 26 is 65 (lower than last week):

• 2 days: Fear
• 2 days: Neutral
• 3 days: Greed

Market Forecast

This week witnessed a major expansion in stablecoin issuance, a significant net inflow into U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETFs, and a modest inflow into Ethereum Spot ETFs.
Amid the Trump administration’s softened stance on high tariffs and dovish comments from Fed officials about potential rate cuts, market sentiment surged, pushing BTC from $85,000 to above $95,000.
Large buy orders are primarily from institutions and listed companies, and altcoins have rallied in response.

The market is now in a greedy phase.
The probability of a Fed 25bps rate cut in May is only 3.5%, lower than last week, making a May cut unlikely, though a June cut remains probable.
We expect the market to consolidate in a narrow range and eventually break out — any crypto-friendly news could drive BTC back above $100,000.

Weekly Major Events

1. April 19:
   ABCDE co-founder Du Jun announced via social media that ABCDE has officially halted new project investments and suspended fundraising for its second fund.
2. April 19:
   A CNBC national survey revealed broad dissatisfaction with President Trump’s handling of tariffs, inflation, and government spending, with his economic approval rating hitting a new low.
3. April 22:
   According to Decrypt, newly appointed SEC Chairman Paul Atkins faces the review of over 70 ETF filings related to 15 types of altcoins and meme coins.
4. April 23:
   President Trump stated that tariffs on Chinese goods will not reach 145% and will drop significantly, but not to zero.
5. April 23:
   Cantor Financial Services, led by Brandon Lutnick (son of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick), is collaborating with SoftBank, Tether, and Bitfinex to form a $3+ billion Bitcoin investment consortium.
6. April 23:
   The White House is nearing comprehensive trade deals with Japan and India to avert large-scale tariffs, though many complex issues are left for future discussions.
7. April 24:
   At the TRUMP token dinner event, the top 25 TRUMP holders will be invited to a private reception and dinner with President Trump.
   Additionally, VIP holders will enjoy an exclusive White House tour.
8. April 24:
   New Hampshire’s Bitcoin Reserve Bill HB 302 passed the Senate Finance Committee with a 4–1 vote, according to Bitcoin Laws.
9. April 25:
   The Federal Reserve rescinded its previous regulatory guidance on banks’ crypto assets and dollar token services and updated related standards to support innovation in the banking system.
   On the same day, Raydium hinted at an upcoming airdrop via emoji tweets.

Macro Economy

1. April 24:
   Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that rising unemployment may trigger rate cuts.
2. April 23:
   According to CME FedWatch Tool, the chance of a 25bps rate cut in May is 3.5%, while the chance of no change is 96.5%.
3. April 24:
   Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin company JAN3, met with Japanese Senator Satoshi Hamada to discuss the urgent need for a national Bitcoin strategy in Japan.

ETF Updates

From April 21 to April 25:

• Bitcoin Spot ETFs net inflow: $3.033 billion
• As of April 25:
• GBTC (Grayscale) outflow total: $22.642 billion, current holdings: $18.246 billion
• IBIT (BlackRock) holdings: $55.646 billion
• Total Bitcoin Spot ETF market cap: $111.026 billion
• Ethereum Spot ETFs net inflow: $157 million

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Events

• Staking Summit: April 28–29, 2025, Dubai
• TOKEN2049 Dubai 2025: April 30 — May 1, 2025, Dubai
• Canada Crypto Week: May 11–17, 2025, Toronto, Canada
• Bitcoin 2025: May 27–29, 2025, Las Vegas, USA

Project Progress

• Delulu, an AI-based on-chain trading and whale tracking platform, will distribute Lulu points and cash coupons to Beta testers by April 29.
• Arcium public testnet launch: April 30.
• Definitive’s EDGE token claim window open until May 1.
• Stride’s AI agent Echos will shut down permanently on May 1; users must withdraw funds before then.

Major Events

• Cboe Digital, the crypto arm of the Chicago Board Options Exchange, plans to launch new Bitcoin futures on April 28, pending regulatory approval. The contracts will settle in cash and be based on the XBTF Index (1/10 the value of the FTSE Bitcoin Index).
• Nigerian court postponed Binance’s tax evasion case hearing to April 30, allowing local tax authorities to respond.
• Terraform Labs creditor claim submission deadline: 7:59 AM, May 1, 2025.
• Bake, a crypto investment platform, will shut down its services in Singapore starting May 1.

Token Unlocks

• IOTA (IOTA): 15.16 million tokens (~$2.54 million) unlocked on April 30 (0.41% of circulation).
• Renzo (REZ): 864 million tokens (~$13.08 million) unlocked on April 30 (8.64% of circulation).
• dYdX (ETHDYDX): 8.33 million tokens (~$5.64 million) unlocked on May 1 (1.13% of circulation).
• Omni Network (OMNI): 16.64 million tokens (~$45.97 million) unlocked on May 2 (16.64% of circulation).

About Us

As the central research hub of the Hotcoin ecosystem, Hotcoin Research delivers professional analysis and forward-looking insights for global crypto asset investors. We have established a comprehensive three-pronged service framework — trend analysis, value discovery, and real-time tracking — integrating in-depth cryptocurrency industry trend research, a multi-faceted project evaluation framework, and 24/7 market monitoring.

These services are further enhanced by our biweekly Emerging Coin Selection Live Strategy Sessions and daily blockchain headlines updates, offering precise market insights and actionable strategies tailored for investors of all experience levels.

By leveraging advanced data analytics models and a robust industry network, we empower novice investors to build a solid understanding of the market while helping institutional players identify and capture alpha opportunities.

Together, we navigate the rapidly evolving crypto landscape, leveraging data-driven decision-making and strategic resource integration to seize value-growth opportunities in the Web3 era.

Risk Disclaimer

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and all investments carry inherent risks. We strongly advise investors to thoroughly assess these risks and adhere to a strict risk management framework to safeguard their funds.

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