ECB Cuts Rates; No Fed Rate Cut in May — Limited Impact from U.S. Tariff Policy | Hotcoin Market Insights (Apr 14–18, 2025)

Crypto Market Overview

• Total Market Cap: $2.67 trillion
• BTC Dominance: 62.95% ($1.68 trillion)
• Stablecoin Market Cap: $234.4 billion (+0.47% over 7 days)
• USDT Dominance: 61.85%
• BTC Price: $85,107 (sideways trend)
• ETH Price: $1,603 (sideways trend)
• Top Gainers (7D) from CoinMarketCap Top 200:
• CORE: +29.36%
• RAY: +23.51%
• DEEP: +41.51%
• T: +36.69%
• ETF Flows (U.S.):
• BTC Spot ETF Net Inflow: $13.9 million
• ETH Spot ETF Net Outflow: $32.3 million
• Fear & Greed Index (April 19): 32
• Sentiment: 1 day Neutral, 6 days Fear

Market Outlook

• Stablecoins continued to expand in supply
• BTC spot ETFs showed minor inflows, while ETH spot ETFs had net outflows
• The U.S. is using tariff hikes to strengthen its trade position — limited short-term impact on crypto markets expected
• BTC and ETH prices moved within narrow ranges; the market is in a recovery phase but still influenced by fear
• DXY has fallen below 100, gold prices hit new highs, signalling strong risk-off sentiment.
• Fed rate cut probability for May is now at 9.1%, lower than last week.
• Market may bottom out between April and May. BTC likely to range between $80K–$90K

Weekly Highlights

1. April 14: Jupiter co-founder meow tweeted a product and governance roadmap rollout in the coming months
2. April 15: Per PeckShield, KiloEx (a perpetual DEX) was hacked, losing ~$7.5M across Base, opBNB, and BNB Chain.
3. April 15: OpenSea launched Solana token trading in closed testing on OS2. NFT trading to follow soon.
4. April 15: Circle’s euro stablecoin, EURC, hit a record-high supply amid trade tensions and USD weakness
5. April 15: U.S. Digital Assets Task Force Director Bo Hines suggested using tariff revenue to buy Bitcoin
6. April 15: ZKsync exploit led to unauthorized minting of 111 million ZK tokens from the airdrop admin account
7. April 17: The SEC released details for its third Crypto Policy Roundtable on April 25, focusing on custodianship issues
8. April 16: MANTRA responded to OM token crash, clarified no team sell-offs, and all OM allocations remain locked
9. April 17: Fed Chair Powell acknowledged crypto’s growing legitimacy and emphasized the need for stablecoin regulation
10. April 16: Raydium launched LaunchLab for token creation, raising 85 SOL with immediate liquidity on its AMM
11. April 18: On-chain analyst Ember flagged that Blur transferred 23.8M unlocked BLUR (~$2.3M) to Coinbase Prime

Macro Updates

1. April 14: SEC delayed decision on allowing staking for Grayscale’s ETHE
2. April 14: Japan’s 20-year bond yield rose to 2.435%, the highest since 2004
3. April 17: Powell noted that rising unemployment and inflation could pose future policy dilemmas
4. April 18: ECB cuts rates by 25 bps, seventh time in the past year — decision was unanimous.
5. April 18: Trump expressed optimism about reaching a tariff deal with China “within 3 to 4 weeks”
6. April 18: CME FedWatch: 9.1% chance of a Fed rate cut in May, 90.9% chance of no change

ETF

• BTC Spot ETF Flows (April 14–18): +$13.9M
• As of April 18:
• GBTC Total Outflows: $22.736B
• GBTC Current Holdings: $16.152B
• IBIT (BlackRock) Holdings: $48.598B
• Total U.S. BTC Spot ETF Market Cap: $96.936B
• ETH Spot ETF: Net Outflow of $32.3M this week

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Events

• TOKEN2049 Dubai 2025: April 30 — May 1
• Canada Crypto Week: May 11–17 in Toronto

Project Milestones

• Lorentz Mainnet Upgrade: Launches April 21 on opBNB
• Coinbook Acquisition: Fully acquired by BACKSEAT Inc., rebranding on April 21
• DoubleZero 2Z Token Sale: Ends April 22 on CoinList
• Hyperlane Airdrop: Scheduled for April 22
• 57% to users, 25% to core team, 10.9% to investors, 7.1% to treasury

Major Announcements

• Coinbase Derivatives: Filed to launch XRP futures with CFTC, expected to go live on April 21

Token Unlocks

About Us

As the central research hub of the Hotcoin ecosystem, Hotcoin Research delivers professional analysis and forward-looking insights for global crypto asset investors. We have established a comprehensive three-pronged service framework — trend analysis, value discovery, and real-time tracking — integrating in-depth cryptocurrency industry trend research, a multi-faceted project evaluation framework, and 24/7 market monitoring.

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By leveraging advanced data analytics models and a robust industry network, we empower novice investors to build a solid understanding of the market while helping institutional players identify and capture alpha opportunities.

Together, we navigate the rapidly evolving crypto landscape, leveraging data-driven decision-making and strategic resource integration to seize value-growth opportunities in the Web3 era.

Risk Disclaimer

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and all investments carry inherent risks. We strongly advise investors to thoroughly assess these risks and adhere to a strict risk management framework to safeguard their funds.

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