I.Introduction

In April 2025, the Bitcoin market experienced significant volatility. Following a sharp correction at the end of Q1, U.S. tariff policies triggered a steep decline in Bitcoin’s price, briefly pushing it below $75,000 and sparking market-wide panic. Notably, however, whales continued to accumulate BTC aggressively during the dip, showing no signs of the mass sell-offs typical of past bear markets. At the same time, traditional financial institutions accelerated their adoption of Bitcoin, with many increasing their holdings or making initial allocations.

This report analyzes the BTC accumulation trends of on-chain whales and traditional financial institutions. It also explores the correlation between on-chain capital flows and Bitcoin’s price movements to assess whether the market has reached a bottom. Additionally, the report considers macroeconomic and policy factors influencing market sentiment and capital allocation. Multiple on-chain indicators are examined to evaluate current market trends.

II. Whale Address Capital Flows

Beginning in March, Bitcoin whale addresses displayed a clear pattern of buying the dip. Whales took advantage of the market correction to aggressively accumulate BTC, transferring coins from exchanges and retail users into their wallets. The chart below compares the aggregate BTC balance of addresses holding 1,000–10,000 BTC (purple line) with the price of Bitcoin (black line). Between March and April, as prices declined, the total whale balance increased significantly, indicating sustained accumulation.

Source: https://www.mitrade.com/

According to CryptoQuant analyst caueconomy, whale wallets increased their holdings by over 100,000 BTC during this period. Even as overall network activity remained subdued and retail investors stayed on the sidelines, whales were consistently and strategically buying. As a result, the total BTC held by whale addresses (1,000–10,000 BTC) rose to over 3.35 million BTC — a new cycle high. This countertrend accumulation behaviour is widely considered a potential signal of a market bottom.

In terms of capital flows, on-chain trackers like Whale Alert and Lookonchain recorded several large whale transfers and balance changes in April. On April 11, over $2.4 billion worth of BTC was withdrawn from the U.S.-based exchange Kraken, signalling that large players were consolidating holdings off exchanges, likely for long-term self-custody. Another typical pattern was “new wallet accumulation.” For instance, a billionaire whale purchased 3,238 BTC (worth ~$280 million) within 24 hours in late March at an average price of $86,500. Over the past month, multiple large cold wallet deposits occurred, with more than 50,000 BTC moved offline by major investors, indicating aggressive accumulation during the dip.

Overall, whale activity in April presented a clear “net inflow accumulation” pattern: large volumes of BTC flowed from exchanges into long-term holding wallets. Whale balances increased significantly, with no signs of panic selling. On the contrary, whales took advantage of the 30% price drop as a buying opportunity, demonstrating their confidence that this was a temporary correction, not a trend reversal.

III. Institutional Capital Trends

As Bitcoin continues to be widely regarded as digital gold and an inflation hedge, more traditional institutions are entering the market. According to data from BitcoinTreasuries, over 80 companies currently hold Bitcoin.

Source: https://treasuries.bitbo.io/

1. Asset Management Firms

In early 2025, several major Wall Street firms launched Bitcoin-related products. BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, rolled out a spot Bitcoin ETF at the end of 2024, which received strong market demand and continued to see net inflows into 2025. Notably, BlackRock began expanding beyond Bitcoin — on April 10, it purchased 4,126 ETH (~$6.4 million) via its Ethereum ETF. On April 15, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) added 431.823 BTC worth $37.07 million. As of now, BlackRock holds a total of 571,869 BTC.

Other financial giants, including Fidelity and JPMorgan, have also been reported to increase their exposure to BTC or related derivatives. Fidelity began offering spot BTC trading and custody services in 2024 and reportedly saw increased client allocations in Q1 2025. Meanwhile, Grayscale continues to hold large quantities of BTC through its trust products. The discount rate on GBTC significantly narrowed in April, reflecting rising institutional demand.

2. Public Companies and Corporations

MicroStrategy, the largest publicly traded holder of Bitcoin, continues to issue stock and bonds to finance BTC purchases. According to its latest disclosure, the company bought 3,459 BTC between April 7 and April 13 at an average price of $82,618, totalling $285.8 million. As of April 17, MicroStrategy holds 531,644 BTC, with an average acquisition cost of ~$67,556.

Additionally, some companies are increasing their BTC allocations as part of their corporate treasury reserves. Consulting reports indicate that more companies are viewing Bitcoin as a balance sheet asset to hedge against economic uncertainty. Firms like Tesla and Block (formerly Square) have already purchased BTC. While Tesla has not added to its holdings since 2022, it still retains about 10,000 BTC and has not sold any further. Norwegian energy company Aker, along with other traditional corporations, has also added BTC as strategic reserves, signalling a more open attitude toward Bitcoin among legacy industries.

In summary, traditional institutional capital is increasingly flowing into the Bitcoin market. From Wall Street asset managers to public companies and investment funds, Bitcoin is being added to portfolios for hedging, speculation, or strategic reserve purposes. This institutional force is providing strong buying support and is a key driver behind the ongoing whale accumulation trend.

IV. BTC Price Action and On-Chain Capital Flow Correlation

In recent weeks, Bitcoin’s price has experienced significant fluctuations. After reaching a new all-time high of $109,000 in January, BTC corrected nearly 30% due to profit-taking and concerns over U.S. tariffs, briefly dropping below $75,000. As of April 17, the price has rebounded and stabilized in the $83,000–$85,000 range.

Correction Phase (Jan High to Mar Low):

BTC dropped from $109K to around $75K — a ~30% decline. On-chain data reveals net inflows to exchanges during the plunge, as retail investors rushed to sell. Meanwhile, whale wallet balances increased, with whales buying BTC from exchanges and moving it off-platform. From mid-March onward, exchange BTC balances declined, while stablecoins saw net inflows into exchanges, indicating a rotation of capital into stable assets for preservation. At the peak of market fear, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 19 (extreme fear), which typically signals that selling pressure is nearing exhaustion.

Source: https://www.coinglass.com/pro/i/FearGreedIndex

Bottoming and Rebound Phase (Early April to Now):

After breaking below $75K, BTC quickly rebounded above $80K and entered a consolidation phase. On-chain flows showed net outflows from exchanges (holders withdrawing BTC) and net inflows of stablecoins into exchanges (capital preparing to re-enter the market).

CryptoQuant reported that stablecoin net inflows into exchanges exceeded $1B in early April, the highest since July 2023. This suggests that large sums, primarily in USDT and other stablecoins, were deposited to buy crypto assets like BTC. Stablecoin supply grew by approximately $30B in Q1 2025, with the total market cap surpassing $230B once again. Tether (USDT) was particularly active with multiple issuances in April, providing fresh “ammo” for the market. This capital rotation helped support BTC’s stabilization above $80K and facilitated repeated testing of support/resistance levels.

On-chain data further confirms that accumulation is underway: roughly 63% of BTC has not moved on-chain in over a year, a historical high, indicating strong long-term holding. Whale accumulation, supply constraints on exchanges, and panic sellers exiting — all align with past bottoming signals. Barring unforeseen macroeconomic shocks, BTC may resume its uptrend and enter a new upward cycle.

V. Macro & Policy Influences

Crypto markets are becoming increasingly correlated with macroeconomic conditions. Whale and institutional capital flows in April were not just technical responses; they were also closely tied to macroeconomic policy and sentiment.

1. Fed Rate Policy & Liquidity Outlook

The Federal Reserve’s policy directly impacts global liquidity and, by extension, risk assets like Bitcoin. Between 2022 and 2023, the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes and quantitative tightening put pressure on crypto markets. However, the tone shifted in late 2024: the Fed began cutting rates and then held steady in early 2025, keeping the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.50%.

At the March 19 FOMC meeting, Jerome Powell confirmed no further rate hikes, downgraded growth forecasts, and revised inflation upward, citing rising uncertainty. Dot plots indicate the Fed expects two rate cuts in 2025, bringing rates down to approximately 3.9% by year-end. In April, the Fed also announced it would slow balance sheet runoff — a dovish signal.

These developments are bullish for crypto: peak rates followed by easing improve liquidity and risk appetite. Some firms (e.g., JPMorgan) even expect aggressive cuts in the second half of 2025 if the economy weakens. This has sparked optimism for a liquidity-driven rally, potentially resembling the post-2020 bull cycle. While short-term noise may still cause volatility, Fed dovishness provides macro tailwinds for a Bitcoin bottom.

2. Global Economic and Geopolitical Factors

Another key macro driver is trade policy. Following his return to office, President Trump adopted a hawkish trade stance. In early April, his administration unexpectedly announced sweeping new tariffs, sparking market fears and volatility. However, the White House quickly followed with a 90-day tariff pause to allow for negotiations.

This policy flip-flop caused sharp swings in traditional markets, with crypto also being impacted. Notably, Bitcoin acted as a hedge: as equities fell due to trade tensions, whales accelerated BTC purchases, treating it as a store of value. This risk-hedging behaviour reflects a shift in investor mindset — BTC is increasingly seen as a hedge against macroeconomic chaos, not just a speculative asset.

Recession fears also loom. The IMF recently downgraded global growth forecasts, and many economies are slowing under high interest rates. The U.S. yield curve inversion persists, signalling recession risk in 2025–2026. A mild recession could benefit BTC if central banks ease again, but a deep financial crisis could trigger liquidity squeezes and force even BTC holders to sell. A repeat of the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank collapse or European banking shocks could harm investor confidence and trigger major on-chain selling.

3. Regulatory Landscape

Crypto regulation in H1 2025 is mixed: while the SEC remains tough on altcoins and exchanges, BTC-related policies are improving. Following the SEC’s approval of the first spot Bitcoin ETF in late 2024, several more are now in the pipeline — facilitating institutional access and indirectly boosting on-chain demand.

In Europe, the MiCA framework is progressing, enabling compliant fund managers to allocate to Bitcoin. At the national level, President Trump signed an executive order on March 7, 2025, establishing a U.S. “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve,” designating approximately 200,000 seized BTC as a sovereign asset, and authorizing budget-neutral acquisition strategies.

Internationally, El Salvador continues to implement its BTC-as-legal-tender policy under President Nayib Bukele. The government is still buying 1 BTC per day regardless of price and held approximately 5,800 BTC as of March 2025. Bhutan, via its sovereign Druk Holding & Investments fund, reportedly held 13,029 BTC as of February 2025.

Overall, the policy environment is softening in favor of Bitcoin. Progress on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), relaxed institutional access, and sovereign adoption all reinforce Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition.

VI. Conclusion & Outlook

First, on-chain capital flows from whales, institutions, and smaller investors all show classic bottoming behavior: short-term speculators are being replaced by long-term value holders. Traditional finance is using this dip to enter, integrating BTC into broader portfolios. Continued buying by BlackRock, MicroStrategy, and others signals institutional confidence in BTC’s long-term value.

Second, price action and on-chain metrics confirm bottoming: BTC found strong support in the $74K–$75K range. Several indicators show consensus forming around this value zone. Prices then rebounded to $80K+ and entered consolidation — suggesting absorption of sell pressure and healthy accumulation. On-chain activity is rising moderately, but without overheating, indicating cautious but returning market participation. If BTC can hold these levels and break above key resistance with volume, a new uptrend may follow.

Macro factors provide additional tailwinds. The Fed’s pause and expected cuts, coupled with temporary tariff relief, reduce systemic risk. Liquidity may re-enter, and sentiment has shifted from extreme fear to cautious neutrality. Historically, such fear resets often precede major recoveries.

However, a few risks remain. New macro shocks (e.g., geopolitical conflict, financial crises) could disrupt the bottoming process. Technical confirmation is also needed: BTC must break and hold above its 200-day moving average and key resistance to fully confirm the bottom. On-chain metrics must also be monitored closely for early warning signs (e.g., whales selling, exchange inflows spiking).

All in all, multiple signs suggest Bitcoin likely completed its bottom in April 2025. The market is transitioning from panic to rebuilding confidence, with both internal and external conditions improving. A new bullish phase may soon begin.

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