U.S. Signs Sky-High Reciprocal Tariffs, Triggering Global Stock Market Crash | Hotcoin Research Market Insight: March 31 — April 4, 2025

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies currently stands at $2.68 trillion, with Bitcoin (BTC) accounting for 61.9% or approximately $1.66 trillion. The total market cap of stablecoins stands at $235 billion, reflecting a 0.49% increase over the past 7 days, with USDT making up 61.57% of that total.

This week, BTC traded within a range and is now priced at $82,687. ETH also showed a sideways trend, with its current price at $1,769.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most recorded losses, while a few saw gains.Notably:

• EOS: +24.27% (7-day gain）
• PENDLE: +17.96%
• COMP: +12.12%

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $165.3 million, while spot Ethereum ETFs had a net outflow of $50 million this week.
The “Fear & Greed Index” on April 4 stood at 34 (higher than last week). Market sentiment: 6 days in fear, 1 day neutral.

Market Outlook:
The market remains in a range-bound state, with sentiment still anchored in fear. Stablecoin issuance saw a slight uptick on-chain, while both spot BTC and ETH ETFs in the U.S. continued to see net outflows.
On-chaintrading of gold-pegged assets has been relatively active. The reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2 far exceeded market expectations, triggering a significant risk-off sentiment and widespread global stock market declines.
The probability of a 25 bps Fed rate cut in May rose to 33.3%, up from the previous week. The broader market is expected to remain in a consolidation phase through April to May. For potential opportunities, keep an eye on popular projects in the Solana ecosystem and the “Hotcoin New Listings” board for wealth-generation prospects.

Weekly Highlights

1. The Trump family, through a newly established holding company, has acquired at least 60% ownership of WLFI.
2. On March 31, Bitcoin Magazine reported that BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warned the U.S. dollar faces the risk of losing its global reserve currency status, potentially being replaced by Bitcoin and other digital assets.
3. On April 1, Tether increased its BTC holdings by 8,888 BTC (worth approximately $735 million) in Q1.
4. On April 2, Circle submitted an S-1 filing to the U.S. SEC, officially launching its IPO process. The company plans to list on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol “CRCL”.
5. On April 2, Coinglass data indicated that funding rates across major CEXs and DEXs continue to reflect bearish sentiment in the crypto market.
6. On April 3, following President Trump’s executive order to impose “reciprocal tariffs” on trade partners, U.S. stock index futures plunged in after-hours trading.
7. .On April 2, Justin Sun claimed via social media that FDUSD issuer First Digital Trust (FDT) is effectively bankrupt and unable to fulfill customer redemptions.
8. On April 3, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) noted that Trump’s reciprocal tariffs exceeded market expectations.

CICC warned the move could heighten market uncertainty and stagflation risks, projecting a 1.9 percentage point increase in PCE inflation and a 1.3 percentage point decrease in U.S. real GDP growth. While tariffs may generate over $700 billion in revenue, they could force the Fed to pause rate cuts, further increasing downside economic risks.

1. On April 4, U.S. equity markets closed sharply lower: the Dow dropped ~1,700 points, the S&P 500 fell 4.8%, and the Nasdaq slid nearly 6%.

Macroeconomics

1. On April 4, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated in a keynote speech on the economic outlook that sluggish growth and rising inflation are offsetting each other, leading the Fed to maintain its forecast of two rate cuts in 2025.
2. As of April 6, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25bps rate cut in May stands at 33.3%, while the likelihood of no change is 66.7%.
3. On April 4, U.S. non-farm payrolls for March (seasonally adjusted) increased by 228,000, surpassing expectations of 135,000. The previous figure was revised downward from 151,000 to 117,000.

ETFs

Between March 31 and April 4:

• U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF net outflows totaled $165.3 million.
• As of April 4:
• GBTC (Grayscale): total outflows of $22.575 billion, current holdings at $16.162 billion.
• IBIT (BlackRock): holdings at $48.241 billion.
• Total market cap of U.S. spot BTC ETFs: $96.288 billion.
• U.S. Spot Ethereum ETF net outflows totaled $50 million.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Events

1. TOKEN2049 Dubai 2025: April 30 — May 1, Dubai
2. Canada Crypto Week: May 11–17, Toronto
3. Paris Blockchain Week 2025: April 8–10, Paris
4. YZi Labs & AGI House Hackathon: April 12, focused on AI and blockchain-powered fintech solutions

Project Updates

1. INERTIA (on Initia): The incentivized testnet runs through April 8. Users can mint and lend testnet LSTs (nINIT and sINIT).
2. Bybit Web3: In an effort to streamline its product offerings and improve user experience, Bybit Web3 will shut down its NFT Market, Inscription Market, and IDO product pages on April 9, 2025.
3. Binance Voting Round 2: Ends on April 10 at 07:59 UTC. Participating projects include: VIRTUAL, BIGTIME, UXLINK, MORPHO, GRASS, ATH, WAL, SAFE, ZETA, IP, ONDO, PLUME.
4. Sonic SVM (Solana L2): Mainnet Season 1 rewards campaign continues through April 10.
5. UXLINK (Web3 Social): Season 3 airdrop snapshot will take place on April 10, with claiming starting on April 18. Up to 3.077% of the total supply will be distributed to OAOG community users, developers, testnet contributors, AI growth agents, and other active participants.

Important Notices

1. Senior White House officials confirmed that:

2.10% base tariff rate effective April 5

3.Reciprocal tariffs effective April 9

4.The U.S. SEC has postponed its decision on BlackRock’s ETH ETF options to April 9.

5.Terra founder Do Kwon’s case status hearing originally scheduled for March 10 has been postponed to April 10; the final trial date remains January 26, 2026.

Token Unlocks

1. Movement (MOVE): Unlocking 50 million tokens (worth ~$15.77M) on April 9 at 20:00; 2.04% of circulating supply.
2. Aptos (APT): Unlocking 11.31 million tokens (~$48.97M) on April 12 at 16:00; 1.87% of circulating supply.
3. Axie Infinity (AXS): Unlocking 9.09 million tokens (~$22.36M) on April 12 at 21:10; 5.67% of circulating supply.

About Us

As the central research hub of the Hotcoin ecosystem, Hotcoin Research delivers professional analysis and forward-looking insights for global crypto asset investors. We have established a comprehensive three-pronged service framework — trend analysis, value discovery, and real-time tracking — integrating in-depth cryptocurrency industry trend research, a multi-faceted project evaluation framework, and 24/7 market monitoring.

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Together, we navigate the rapidly evolving crypto landscape, leveraging data-driven decision-making and strategic resource integration to seize value-growth opportunities in the Web3 era.

Risk Disclaimer

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and all investments carry inherent risks. We strongly advise investors to thoroughly assess these risks and adhere to a strict risk management framework to safeguard their funds.

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