U.S. CPI Falls Below Expectations, Raising Recession Fears; Cathie Wood Increases BTC Holdings | Hotcoin Research Market Insights: March 10–14, 2025

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at $2.65 trillion, with BTC dominance at 60.7% (equivalent to $1.61 trillion). The stablecoin market cap is $228.5 billion, reflecting a 7-day increase of 1.02%, with USDT accounting for 62.89%.

This week, BTC exhibited range-bound fluctuations, currently priced at $84,300, while ETH trended downward, now at $1,916.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most recorded losses, while a few saw gains, including:

• IP: +25.98% (7-day gain)
• AUCTION: +78.12% (7-day gain)
• LAYER: +55.7% (7-day gain)

This week, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $742.9 million, while the U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs experienced a net outflow of $143 million.
On March 15, the Fear & Greed Index stood at 46 (higher than last week), with market sentiment reflecting 1 day of extreme fear, 4 days of fear, and 2 days of neutral sentiment.

Market Outlook

The market exhibited range-bound fluctuations this week, transitioning from extreme fear to neutral sentiment. Stablecoin issuance increased slightly, but U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs continued to see net outflows. U.S. stocks showed slight recovery, while gold futures surpassed $3,000, indicating growing risk aversion.

On the positive side, both U.S. CPI and PPI data came in below expectations. However, whether this will prompt a Federal Reserve rate cut remains uncertain. In the short term, the market is expected to continue its range-bound movement until a clear rate cut decision triggers a significant liquidity inflow into the crypto sector.

Weekly Highlights

Key Events from March 10–14

1. March 10 — U.S. President Donald Trump did not rule out the possibility of a 2025 recession, acknowledging that his economic policies may cause short-term turbulence, but he remains confident in long-term prosperity.
2. March 10 — Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio stated in a Telegram group that he is not rushing to enter trades at current price levels. He reiterated that $75,000 is his primary area of interest.
3. March 10 — The Block reported that Bitcoin volatility remains elevated after reaching its highest level of the year last week. The annualized volatility hit 59.4% on Monday and has since stabilized around 58%, marking the most volatile period since December 2024.
4. March 11 — Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder, outlined his market strategy:

• Bitcoin may bottom near $70,000 after a 36% correction from its $110,000 peak, which is considered a normal retracement in a bull market.
• A major U.S. stock market crash and financial institution failures would likely precede central bank intervention.
• Once the Federal Reserve and other central banks start injecting liquidity, it will be time to go all in on Bitcoin.

1. March 11 — Elon Musk reported that X (formerly Twitter) was hit by a massive cyberattack, suggesting that the attack was highly coordinated and possibly state-sponsored.
2. March 11 — DeepSeek denied rumors that it would release its next-generation R2 AI model on March 17.
3. March 12 — Binance and Abu Dhabi-based AI investor MGX announced a $2 billion investment deal, marking Binance’s largest institutional investment to date.
4. March 13 — Russian crypto exchange Garantex co-founder Aleksej Besciokov was arrested in India on charges of money laundering and operating an unlicensed money transfer business. Authorities from the U.S., Germany, and Finland seized Garantex’s servers and froze $28 million in crypto assets, with assistance from Tether.
5. March 14 — The Solana community voted on a proposal (SIMD-0228) to reduce staking inflation, but it failed with 43.6% in favor, 27.4% against, and 3.3% abstaining (total voter turnout: 74%).
6. March 14 — The Ethereum Foundation announced the launch of the Hoodi testnet on March 17, ahead of the Pectra upgrade.
7. March 14 — BlackRock’s BUIDL tokenized fund surpassed $1 billion in assets, making it the largest on-chain U.S. Treasury fund globally.
8. March 14 — ARK Invest acquired over $80 million worth of Bitcoin from Coinbase, according to Arkham data.

Macroeconomic Updates

1. March 12 — The U.S. SEC delayed multiple spot crypto ETF applications, including Grayscale’s Cardano (ADA) & Dogecoin (DOGE) ETFs, Canary’s XRP, Solana, Litecoin ETFs, and VanEck’s Solana ETF.
2. March 12 — U.S. February CPI data fell below expectations:

• YoY CPI: 2.8% (lowest since Nov 2024)
• MoM CPI: 0.2% (lowest since Oct 2024)
• YoY Core CPI: 3.1% (lowest since Apr 2021)
• MoM Core CPI: 0.2% (lowest since Dec 2024)

1. March 12 — Japanese firm Metaplanet acquired an additional 162 BTC.
2. March 13 — According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a March Fed rate cut is 2%, with 98% odds of holding rates steady.

ETF Market Update

Between March 10–14, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $742.9 million.

• Grayscale BTC Trust (GBTC) has seen total outflows of $22.455 billion, now holding $16.413 billion.
• BlackRock’s IBIT ETF holds $48.107 billion.
• Total U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF market cap: $96.866 billion.
• Ethereum spot ETF net outflows: $143 million.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Events

1. Digital Asset Summit 2025 — March 18–20, New York, U.S.
2. Next Block Expo — Warsaw 2025 — March 19–20, Warsaw, Poland
3. Southeast Asia Blockchain Week 2025 — March 30 — April 5, Bangkok, Thailand
4. 2025 Hong Kong Web3 Carnival — April 6–9, Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Center

Project Developments

1. March 17 — KiloEx to launch TGE on Manta.
2. March 17 — Ronin mainnet to undergo Cerastes upgrade.
3. March 17 — Starknet v0.13.4 scheduled for deployment.
4. March 20 — BNB Chain mainnet to undergo Pascal hard fork.
5. March 22 — KAITO airdrop claim deadline.
6. Until March 23 — Ethena Labs Season 3 airdrop ongoing.

Key Events

1. CME to Launch Solana (SOL) Futures on March 17

• Pending regulatory review, market participants can trade micro contracts (25 SOL) and large contracts (500 SOL).

2.SEC to Hold Crypto Asset Roundtable on March 21

• The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will host a crypto asset roundtable in Washington, D.C., on March 21 from 1:00 PM to 5:00 PM (March 22, 4:00 AM — 8:00 AM Beijing Time).
• Theme: “How We Got Here and the Way Forward — Defining Securities Status.”
• The panel will consist of twelve lawyers and scholars.

3.Federal Reserve to Announce Interest Rate Decision on March 19

• The announcement is scheduled for 2:00 AM Beijing Time.

4.Bank of England to Announce Interest Rate Decision on March 20

• The announcement is scheduled for 8:00 PM Beijing Time.

Token Unlocks

1. SuperRare (RARE) — March 17

• Unlocking 1,334 tokens worth approximately $1.36M, accounting for 1.33% of circulating supply.

2. Solv Protocol (SOLV) — March 17

• Unlocking 117M tokens worth approximately $5.12M, accounting for 1.22% of circulating supply.

3. Polyhedra Network (ZKJ) — March 19

• Unlocking 15.5M tokens worth approximately $31.61M, accounting for 1.55% of circulating supply.

4. Bittensor (TAO) — March 21

• Unlocking 210K tokens worth approximately $55.7M, accounting for 1.03% of circulating supply.

5.SPACE ID (ID) — March 22

• Unlocking 78.49M tokens worth approximately $18.11M, accounting for 3.92% of circulating supply.

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