Hotcoin Research Market Insights: February 10 — February 14, 2025 20 U.S. States Propose Bitcoin Reserve Bills; Fed’s March Rate Cut Unlikely After CPI Release

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $3.2 trillion, with Bitcoin (BTC) holding a 59.94% share, worth $1.92 trillion. The stablecoin market cap stands at $225.3 billion, with a 7-day increase of 0.62%, and USDT accounts for 63.19% of the stablecoin market.
BTC traded within a narrow range this week, currently at $97,725. Ethereum (ETH) also experienced range-bound movements, trading at $2,728.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most showed gains, with some projects experiencing notable increases: BNX rose 508% over the past 7 days, CAKE increased by 77.65%, AI16Z by 54.32%, GRASS by 49.89%, and TRUMP rose by 33.55%.
This week, there was a net outflow of $602.4 million from Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S., and a net outflow of $26.3 million from Ethereum spot ETFs. On February 14, the “Fear & Greed Index” stood at 50 (higher than last week), reflecting a neutral sentiment over the past 7 days.

Market Forecast:

This week, the market escaped from the panic caused by the ‘U.S. tariff hike.’ Despite the low probability of a Fed rate cut in March, market impact was limited. Altcoins saw a strong recovery and are currently in a consolidation phase. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs saw net outflows in the U.S., while stablecoins experienced a modest increase. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has accumulated an additional $742.4 million in Bitcoin, at an average price of $97,255 per BTC, signaling continued interest from long-term holders.
The release of the U.S. presidential token TRUMP has generated a wealth effect, with countries like the Central African Republic and Argentina considering similar initiatives. Currently, there are many opportunities in on-chain MEMEs, but the risks are high as many tokens fail to maintain their momentum for more than a day. Hotcoin Research handpicks popular assets for immediate launch, offering users trading options.

Key Events of the Week:

1. On February 10, Faustin-Archange Touadéra, President of the Central African Republic, announced the launch of the CAR Meme coin through his official X account, though it remains unclear if his account was hacked.
2. On February 10, the Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill (Senate Bill 778) was submitted to the Senate Finance Committee for evaluation.
3. On February 10, on-chain data revealed that the Trump crypto project WLFI purchased 273,937 Movement (MOVE) tokens for 156,667 USD.
4. On February 10, Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), announced on social media that the company had acquired 7,633 Bitcoins at an average price of $97,255, totaling approximately $742.4 million.
5. On February 11, North Carolina proposed a strategic Bitcoin reserve bill, aiming to make the state the first to purchase Bitcoin.
6. On February 12, according to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) website, Goldman Sachs’ 13F filing disclosed holdings of multiple Bitcoin spot ETFs worth over $1.5 billion as of December 31, 2024.
7. On February 12, the Trump crypto project WLFI launched the Macro Strategy plan, which aims to establish a strategic token reserve to support Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other leading projects reshaping the global financial frontier.
8. On February 14, NFT project Doodles announced the launch of its official token, DOOD.
9. On February 14, Coinbase (COIN) reported Q4 2024 earnings, with revenue reaching $2.3 billion, far exceeding market expectations of $1.87 billion, and an 88% quarter-over-quarter growth. Trading revenue was $1.6 billion, up 172%, with quarterly trading volume of $439 billion. Full-year revenue was $6.6 billion, with a net profit of $2.6 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $3.3 billion.

Macro-Economic Updates:

1. On February 8, the U.S. SEC postponed its decision on BlackRock’s Ethereum ETF options trading to April 9.
2. On February 13, after the release of CPI data, the CME “FedWatch” tool showed that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in March is only 2.5%, with the likelihood of no change at 97.5%. The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by May stands at 0.2%, and a 25 basis point cut at 11.7%, with 88.1% expecting no change.
3. On February 14, U.S. President Trump announced plans to impose reciprocal tariffs, with expectations that tariffs will remain unchanged for many countries, with no exemptions or reductions. He indicated that countries using VAT systems may face tariffs, and goods routed through other countries to avoid tariffs would not be accepted. However, the tariff policy will be delayed, likely starting on April 1.
4. On February 14, the SEC confirmed it had received Grayscale’s amendment to its spot XRP ETF application.
5. On February 14, the SEC confirmed it had accepted Grayscale and the NYSE’s 19b-4 filing to establish a DOGE ETF.

ETF Updates:

From February 10 to February 14, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced a net outflow of $602.4 million. As of February 14, GBTC (Grayscale) had outflows totaling $21.967 billion, currently holding $19.472 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) holds $57.087 billion. The total market cap of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $115.748 billion. The U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs had a net outflow of $26.3 million.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Events:

1. CoinDesk will hold Consensus Hong Kong from February 18 to 20, 2025.
2. ETHDenver 2025 will be held from February 23 to March 2, 2025, in Denver, USA.

Project Updates :

1. The Morph consumer-grade public blockchain’s points program will run until February 20, 2025. 10% of its tokens will be used for community airdrops and ecosystem growth activities, totaling 1.6 million points. Users can earn points by bridging assets across chains, paying gas fees, and inviting new users.
2. According to Cointelegraph, Telegram now requires third-party crypto wallets to use TON Connect and limits its mini-programs to the TON blockchain, making TON the only supported blockchain network on Telegram.

Significant Events:

1. Coinbase Derivatives has applied to list SOL and HBAR futures contracts starting February 18. The standard SOL futures contract will represent 100 SOL (approximately $24,000), while the mini contract will cover 5 SOL. HBAR futures contracts will be for 5,000 tokens. These contracts will be cash-settled monthly and cleared by CFTC-registered derivatives clearing organization Nodal Clear, LLC.
2. FTX will begin initial distributions to allowed claimants under its Chapter 11 reorganization plan starting February 18, 2025. Eligible creditors will receive their distributions within 1 to 3 business days from that date.

Token Unlocks:

1. ApeCoin (APE) will unlock 15.38 million tokens on February 17, valued at approximately $11.5 million, representing 1.54% of the circulating supply.
2. Polyhedra Network (ZKJ) will unlock 15.5 million tokens on February 19, valued at approximately $32.22 million, representing 1.55% of the circulating supply.
3. Immutable (IMX) will unlock 24.52 million tokens on February 21, valued at approximately $20.16 million, representing 1.23% of the circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core investment research department of Hotcoin, is dedicated to providing comprehensive and professional analysis of the crypto market. Our goal is to offer clear market insights and practical operational guidance for investors at all levels. Our professional content includes “Play to Earn Web3” tutorial series, in-depth analysis of crypto market trends, detailed analysis of potential projects, and real-time market observations. Whether you are a newcomer exploring the crypto world or a seasoned investor seeking deep insights, Hotcoin is your reliable partner for understanding and seizing market opportunities.

Risk Disclaimer

The crypto market is highly volatile, and investment involves risks. We strongly advise investors to fully understand these risks and operate within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.

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