Hotcoin Research | Market Insight: October 28 — November 1, 2024

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.32 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.92% at $1.37 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $172.7 billion.

The price of BTC is range-bound this week, with the current price of BTC at $69,474 and the current price of ETH at $2,502. A small portion of CoinMarketCap’s top 200 projects are up and most of them are down, including RAY, which is up by 31.43% in 7 days, DOGE, which is up by 20.5% in 7 days, and the popular project GRASS, which is up by 103.23% in 7 days.

For the week, the U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF had net inflows: $2.172 billion and the U.S. Ether Spot ETF had net inflows: $13 million.

On Nov. 1, according to CME’s “FedWatch”: the probability that the Fed will cut 25 basis points by November is 99.7%, the probability of leaving current rates unchanged is 0%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 0.3%.

The 2024 U.S. elections will be held on November 5, and the results could have a major impact on the crypto world.

The ‘Fear & Greed Index’ for November 1 was 72 (same as last week), and this week’s sentiment: 7 days of greed.

Understanding Now

A look back at the week’s big events

1. Vitalik slams ethereum critics with ‘state of war’;

2. Solana network TVL up nearly 20% in the past week, renewing highs since january 2022, data shows;

3. Top trader Eugene: market will continue to rise after the election, bullish on Solana;

4. On October 29th, USDT was officially launched on the Aptos mainnet;

5. ETH/BTC exchange rate in the morning of October 29th once fell below 0.036, continued to hit the lowest level since the 21-year bull top;

6. Trump-concept stocks opened higher, with shares of Trump Media Technology Group up 8.4%;

7. On October 30th, DWF Labs: has fired the partner accused of attempted sodomy from his management and operations roles;

8. 400 ETH from Vitalik’s previous sale of meme coins have been donated to Ukrainian charitable organizations;

9. Tether issued an additional 1 billion USDT in the morning of October 30th (authorized to be held in abeyance);

10. The Arena: ARENA tokens are open for initial airdrop claims;

11. dYdX Trading announced that it has laid off 35% of its core team members;

12. The Optimism Foundation will fund Kraken with 25 million OP tokens, the funding agreement was reached earlier this year;

13. The rune MEMENTO-MORI, etched by Casey Rodarmor, founder of the Ordinals protocol, has been airdropped;

14. Jito has opened for repledging deposits;

15. Fdusd is expanding to solana;

16.Tether Q3 net profit was $2.5 billion and holds over $100 billion in U.S. Treasuries;

17. Zircuit Fairdrop has opened its doors to EIGEN holders and pledgers;

18. Trump crypto project World Liberty Financial cuts fundraising goal by 90% to $30 million;

19. On November 1st, CZ hinted at a bull market in 2025, calling 2024 a ‘recovery year’.

Macroeconomics

1. On October 31st, Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett posted on social media that cryptocurrency investor Canary Capital has filed a SOL ETF application with the U.S. SEC;

2. On October 31st, Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, posted on X that the U.S. SEC has formally accepted the application to convert the Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC) into an ETF, and that the SEC is seeking public comment;

3. On November 1st, according to CME’s “FedWatch”: the probability that the Fed will cut 25 basis points by November is 99.7%, the probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged is 0%, and the probability of cutting the interest rate by 50 basis points is 0.3%;

4. On November 2nd, according to the public filing of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), 21 Shares has filed an S-1 application and plans to launch the first XRP ETF “21 Shares Core XRP Trust”.

ETF

According to statistics, during the period of Oct. 28-Nov. 1, the U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF had a net inflow: $2.172 billion; GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of: $20.116 billion as of Nov. 1, and is currently holding $15.209 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) is currently holding $29.701 billion. The total market capitalization of the U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF is: $71.735 billion.

Net inflows into the U.S. Ether Spot ETF: $13 million.

Foreseeing the Future

Event Preview

1. Devcon 2024 will take place from November 12 to November 15, 2024 in Bangkok, Thailand. 2;

2. The Block will host the Web3 Summit “Emergence” on December 5–6 at the Prague Convention Center in the Czech Republic, which will facilitate the connection between technology and capital, bridging Wall Street and the crypto space The summit will bring together a diverse group of delegates across industries and chains to discuss ETFs and asset management, crypto regulatory uncertainty, and more. In partnership with Foresight Ventures, Emergence will provide attendees with insights on advancing cryptocurrencies in Asia and will bridge the gap between East and West in terms of capital and talent.

Project Progress

1. Sonic Labs’ (formerly Fantom’s) new bounty program “Sonic Boom” will end on November 4th, and up to 30 winning projects will be assigned points in Emerald, Sapphire, and Ruby tiers. Sonic Gems point holders will receive 37.5% of the total amount of airdrop tokens in the future. Winning projects can distribute their airdrop points to users as a reward for using their applications;

2. The Ginger upgrade for the modular blockchain Celestia will be activated at Arabica altitude 2348907 (expected November 5, 2024) and is expected to enter the Mocha testnet in November and the mainnet beta in December;

3. Blockchain-based videoconferencing project Huddle01 will conduct a node public sale on November 6, through which it plans to raise $37 million;

4. The Gitcoin grant GG22 is scheduled to close on November 7 at 7:59 p.m. 5. the stablecoin protocol Usual Points is scheduled to open on November 6 at 7:59 p.m;

5. The Stablecoin protocol Usual points program runs for 4 months until November 10th.

Important Events

1. Crypto exchange Paxful co-founder and former technology CEO Artur Schaback is scheduled to be sentenced on November 4 to up to five years in prison after pleading guilty to conspiracy and failing to maintain an effective anti-money-laundering (AML) program, and resigning from Paxful’s board of directors. 2. 2024 U.S. elections will be held in the United States;

2. The 2024 U.S. elections will be held on November 5th;

3. Bitcoin miner Bitfarms postponed a meeting scheduled for October 29 to November 6, following a special meeting of shareholders requested by Riot Platforms. in a joint announcement on September 23, 2024, Riot Platforms and Bitfarms announced that they had resolved their dispute via a settlement agreement;

4. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delayed its resolution of BlackRock’s application to trade options on the Ether Spot ETF, with the latest deadlines set for Nov. 10, respectively.

Token Unlocking

1. Gravity Token G will be unlocked on November 5 for approximately 310 million tokens, valued at approximately $8.98 million, or 2.59% of the current float;

2. Ethereum Name Service Token ENS will unlock on November 8 for approximately 1.46 million tokens valued at approximately $24.12 million, or 1.46% of the current float;

3. The GMT token GMT will unlock approximately 92.22 million tokens on November 9, valued at approximately $11.63 million, or 1.54% of the current outstanding volume.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core investment research department of Hotcoin, is dedicated to providing comprehensive and professional analysis of the crypto market. Our goal is to offer clear market insights and practical operational guidance for investors at all levels. Our professional content includes “Play to Earn Web3” tutorial series, in-depth analysis of crypto market trends, detailed analysis of potential projects, and real-time market observations. Whether you are a newcomer exploring the crypto world or a seasoned investor seeking deep insights, Hotcoin is your reliable partner for understanding and seizing market opportunities.

Risk Disclaimer

The crypto market is highly volatile, and investment involves risks. We strongly advise investors to fully understand these risks and operate within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.

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